ON THE BRINK - AGAIN

On April 1, Israel bombed an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, ostensibly targeting a meeting between Iranian intelligence officials and Palestinian militants. The strike killed a senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, six Guard Corps soldiers, five Iran backed militants, one Hezbollah fighter, one Iranian advisor, and two civilians. What was unusual of this attack was not that it was executed within the volatile middle eastern war zone. What was unusual was that, while previous Israeli operations inside Iran had been covert, this one was openly admitted to by the Israeli government. Besides, while previous strikes within Iranian territory would have been communicated with U.S. counterparts prior to execution, this one remained secret until Israeli planes were already airborne. Moreover, while virtually all covert attacks in the past were well out of its territory, this attack was well within the country's diplomatic premises, which, according to article 22 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, adopted in 1961, was accepted as inviolable. This meant that an attack on an embassy or consulate is considered an attack on the country it represents. So, given the situation on the ground, it would not seem unreasonable to anticipate impending responses to an openly admitted fatal attack. Iran's massive response, firing 170 weaponized drones and 150 cruise and ballistic missiles, may not appear to have been proportionate. However, it also appeared calibrated, measured, and was communicated in advance. Given the 620 miles separating the two adversaries multiple more aggressive strategies could have been employed. Its response was not meant to do much harm to civilians or significant damage to infrastructure. A well prepared, collaborative effort at preventing potentially significant casualties and damage successfully kept things calm. The question remained, why did we go through this at all? As a cynic - not a fan of Bibi Netanyahu, nor Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s theocratic government, the answer is not militarily, it is political. Both adversaries are extremely familiar with their respective military strength. However, each one should also be aware of domestic political dynamics. Let’s face it, it does not take a genius to calculate prospective responses to an admitted fatal attack. So, what were they thinking? Mr. Netanyahu seemed to have calculated that the U.S., even if not informed in advance, would support Israel no matter what the response from Iran would be. Given that only 15% of Israelis want him to keep his job following the war with Hamas, its continuation was essential for the prime minister’s political survival. Simultaneously, more than 60% of the Iranian population has polled to be opposed to the current regime. With elections to be completed on May 2, domestic imperatives were dominant when deciding on effective retaliatory responses. In both cases domestic political considerations may have featured in considering aggressive actions. Mr. Netanyahu has a history of exploiting national security belligerence to stay in power. During the run-up to the 2019 elections the “Washington Institute” observed that “to win reelection, Bibi Netanyahu is waging “wars” at home and abroad, launching air strikes against multiple middle eastern countries” With greatly diminishing popular support, and in need of shifting some of the international focus from the carnage in Gaza, it is not surprising that he continues to flaunt national security prowess to shore up his political acumen. His critics describe him as either a master strategist in complete control, or a hysterical politician in the twilight of his reign, doing everything he is able to to maintain his grip on power. Similarly in Iran, having been aggressively, fatally and openly accosted, the Ayatollah regime could not sit back and absorb Israeli aggression without losing significant support at home. But, having demonstrated its resolve and capability, the Iranian government notified the world that it is not seeking a further escalation with Israel after its retaliatory attack. At this writing, Israel’s war cabinet is still considering its options. Allies urge restraint. President Biden made it clear that the U.S. will not offer support for any retaliatory action by Israel. The Israeli Defense Force vows to retaliate. Israel Katz, the country’s foreign minister is busily posting on social media leading a diplomatic attack. House Speaker Mike Johnson outlined a plan to pass aid for Israel through Congress, separating it from support for Ukraine and Taiwan. The rest of us will keep our fingers crossed in anticipation of politicians deciding which way to move forward. Theo Wierdsma