Tuesday, August 25, 2015

HOW DO WE DECIDE HOW TO VOTE ON THE IRAN DEAL?

It is questionable whether our viewpoint on the Iran Deal, and our vote, if we get the chance, will have any significant influence on the ultimate situation on the ground. However, what do we consider when we assess how to approach this agreement?

NUCLEAR WEAPONS
The suggestion that the "deal" allows Iran to develop a nuclear weapon is a spurious one. Iran, by all accounts, is 3 - 6 months away from fielding a nuclear weapon. Rejecting this deal would technically "allow" Iran to complete that process. The agreement would (or at least could) postpone this outcome by 10 - 15 years, and we have the ability to inspect their processes during that time period.

ISRAEL'S SECURITY
Israel has the military capability to defend itself. Israel owns all the nuclear weapons currently operational in the Middle East. It just needs to get behind the political decision to own up to it. Deterrence would be a great defense, and it would be the only sensible posture going forward.

IRAN'S FINANCIAL SUPPORT OF ANTI-AMERICAN AND ANTI-ISRAELI TERRORIST MOVEMENTS AND  ACTIVITIES IN THE AREA
The additional funds Iran would presumably receive (i,e, their "frozen" money) could help supply additional financial support for proxies like Hezbollah and Assad. However, Iran is involved now at a much greater percentage of GDP. This probably won't stop. Greater exposure to the outside world, and a more openly available demonstration effect could generate increased demands for political change. Nobody believes that the Ayatollah will allow adoption of our democratic principles any time soon. But with increased prosperity comes a new set of pressures the ruling theocracy would have to deal with. Without the "deal" nothing would change.

Let's face it, International sanctions are dead no matter what our Congress decides to do. Rejecting this agreement may only serve to keep us out of the loop of the other signatories, and it would probably keep us from participating in the follow-up.

Allow the deal to go forward, and see where it takes us. We have everything to lose.

No comments:

Post a Comment