IS THE POPULIST FAR-RIGHT BEGINNING TO LOSE SUPPORT?

A shocking political event took place in Europe last month. On the strength of a 74% turnout - the largest in Hungary's history - prime minister Viktor Orban's 16 year tenure came to an abrupt end when opposition leader Peter Magyar and his Tisza party defied the odds and scored an overwhelming electoral victory over Fidesz, Orban's party, securing a 2/3 majority in the incoming Hungarian parliament. This victory will allow the new government, if it wants to, change the Hungarian constitution, and will greatly facilitate a comprehensive sweep of state institutions to eliminate the "state capture" imposed during Orban's rule, which significantly weakened the independence of these institutions. Tisza benefited when all centrist and left-wing parties voluntarily withdrew from the election campaign, giving Magyar a clear one on one contest against Fidesz and Orban. Outside of Hungary, the biggest immediate beneficiary of this result will likely be Ukraine, which is now set to receive a 90 billion Euro E.U. loan which, up to now, had been blocked by Orban. In addition, Hungary will soon receive 17 billion euros - about 8% of its GDP - in return for the incoming government undoing actions and laws implemented under Orban that were incompatible with EU rules. This outcome appears to highlight how opposition movements can challenge entrenched regimes and offers lessons for democratic recovery. Tisza's electoral victory prompted multiple analysts to consider whether it could be an indication that far-right political populism is losing ground, that the pendulum is about to swing back. After the 2008 great recession, right-wing populism surged in western democracies. The movement gained increased momentum during the mid 2010s because of growing anti-immigration sentiment, euro skepticism, and a backlash against globalization and political elites. During the mid 2010s political factions increasingly focused on immigration issues, and moved from the fringes to the mainstream, supported by a migrant crisis, which fed into cultural concerns about identity, border security and opposition to "woke" ideologies, economic concerns, globalization and disillusionment with the status quo. Many of these issues emerged within the destabilizing environment of rapidly accelerating social change, amplified by a targeted use of social media and news outlets. It became relatively easy for charismatic politicians to champion any or all of these political wedge issues. The political pendulum refers to the theory that power and public sentiment naturally swing back and forth between ideological extremes - most often between left-leaning progressivism and right-leaning conservatism. After one political ideology remains in power for an extended period of time, the theory is that voters tend to become frustrated with its perceived excess or failures, generating a natural correction toward the opposite side of the spectrum. Observers are suggesting that this is what we are seeing take place in a growing number of countries governed by right-wing populist parties or coalitions. Far-right populist governments have frequently failed to deliver for many constituencies. They frequently did not manage to fulfill their radical promises after assuming office and face practical governmental requirements. As voters begin to focus on personal economic concerns rather than culture wars, populist parties often struggle with mismanagement, internal scandals, and reliance on charismatic leaders who lack depth. Primary examples of countries with personality dependent governments include Italy with Georgia Meloni, the U.S. under Trump and Hungary under Orban and Turkey with Erdogan. Aside from these primary distractors challenging populist governments, mainstream parties are beginning to get better at addressing the grievances that fueled the populist surge of the past number of years. Indications that an ideological shift may be forthcoming appear to be growing. Aside from Orban in Hungary, Meloni in Italy recently lost passage of her flagship referendum designed to initiate judicial reform; in France centrist and left-leaning forces won elections in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and other right-wing footholds; in Slovenia liberal prime minister Robert Golob's Freedom Movement edged out the right-wing former prime minister Janez Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party; and in The Netherlands in a late 2025 election resulted in a significant shift toward the center and left when its far-right led coalition collapsed. Under these circumstances it may be tempting to predict the beginning of a major political shift. However, as Professor Gabor Scheiring at Georgetown University in Qatar cautions, the steam may be running out of the far-right populist movement, these indicators could also reflect isolated setbacks, not necessarily a pendulum swing. Stay tuned. Theo Wierdsma