FINGERS CROSSED - THE END IS NEAR

Not since the 1860 election featuring Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas, which tore the nation apart and which precipitated the Civil War, have we experienced an as intense and potentially consequential election in our national history. The impassioned personal campaign of the past 90 days focused predominantly on the top of the tickets. However, it would be a mistake to ignore the down-ballot contests that could affect control of the Senate and House during upcoming legislative sessions. In the battle for the Senate, 34 seats are up for election. The outcome will probably be decided by 8 of the most competitive races. Democrats and those who caucus with them currently occupy 7 of the most competitive seats. Republicans could maintain control of the House of Representatives by just winning 12 of the 26 seats currently rates as toss-ups, assuming they also secure the seats rated "likely" or "lean Republican." The party has incumbents in place in 15 of those toss-up seats. Be it as it may, most of us are anxiously laser focused on the presidential component of this election. This is not only true for the domestic audience. Next Tuesday politicians, analysts and general observers among many allies and adversaries alike, are holding their collective breath in anxious anticipation of the end result of our quadrennial contest. Most of Europe, NATO, Ukraine, the Middle East, and yes, even Russia and China claim to have a stake in this process. For us the choice has been binary. We either vote for past President Donald Trump, or we choose to elect Vice President Kamala Harris - presumably on the basis of party affiliation or policy preference. Mr. Trump advocates increasing oil production to lower energy prices, grow the economy, and pay for a myriad of funding shortfalls like Medicare and Social Security. He proposes a highly controversial aggressive tariff structure on imports to improve domestic manufacturing prowess. His team flaunts plans to round up millions of undocumented immigrants, and detain them in camps before deporting them en masse. Among other policy ideas he vows to roll back every "Biden attack on the Second Amendment;" expand the the use of the death penalty; rescind every one of Biden's climate initiatives; and leave the question of reproductive freedom up to the states. Ms. Harris plans to use tax increases on billionaires and corporations to make resources available for Social Security and Medicare. She broadly supports Biden's environmental policies; advocates to restore and protect reproductive freedom in every state; favors universal background checks for gun purchases; opposes the death penalty; and supports the bi-partisan proposal on immigration which was scuttled by Congress on advise of Mr. Trump. The devil is in the details. As Donald Trump and Kamala Harris race toward the finish, pro democracy advocates and elected officials are preparing for a volatile period in the aftermath of Election Day, as legal challenges are filed, bad actors spread misinformation and voters wait for Congress to affirm the result. Wendy Weiser, vice president for democracy at the nonpartisan Brennan Center for Justice, remarked that "One of the unusual characteristics of this election is that so much of the potential danger and so many of the attacks on the elective system are focused on the post-election period." Reminiscent of the controversies surrounding the outcome of the 2020 election, Vice President Harris has committed to accept the result of the upcoming plebiscite. Former President Trump has refused to accept the outcome unless he wins. He has also not dismissed the possibility of political violence if he loses. Our long held tradition of a peaceful transfer of presidential power is again at stake. We need to keep our fingers crossed a little longer. The end may be near, but there could be more to come before we and the rest of the world can exhale. Theo Wierdsma