During his campaign for President, Donald Trump's stump speeches almost always included his intent to "enhance" border security and deport all undocumented immigrants currently in the country. In June of 2015 he told his audience that he "would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, and I build them very inexpensively." A few months later he announced that he would deport all 11 million illegal immigrants, claiming to be able to do this within 18 months to 2 years. (Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2015). A year later he reiterated his intent, and doubled down on his deportation plans, proclaiming: "There will be no amnesty." (CNN, September 1, 2016). On January 25 President Trump signed executive orders to start building the wall, create more detention space for illegal immigrants, and to boost the deportation force, boasting that he is fulfilling a promise made to his political base. Since he is a self-proclaimed successful business man, it seems odd that Mr. Trump apparently spent little time calculating the fiscal consequences of his grandiose scheme.
The financial consequences are staggering. The American Action Forum, a conservative leaning Washington think tank which analyzed Trump's plans, in a study titled: "The Labor and Output Declines from Removing all Undocumented Immigrants," (May 5, 2016), uncovered some eye-popping statistics. Its analysis concluded that, in the broad economy, private-sector output would be reduced by roughly $380 billion to $680 billion - with the largest contractions in the farming and construction industries. Taken at face value, the labor force would shrink by about 5%, the equivalent of removing all the workers from both North and South Carolina. Another report, produced by the Center for American Progress, projected that California could lose $100 billion of its GDP, Texas $60 billion, and New Jersey $25 billion. All but 5 U.S. states would see at least a 1% of their GDP each year. ("The Economic Impact of Removing Unauthorized Immigrant Workers," September 21, 2016). Add to these numbers the actual cost of erecting that "beautiful wall," which pencils out closer to $25 billion, instead of the $10 billion to $15 billion our politicians prefer to project, and the annual reduction in U.S. GDP will be about $1 trillion, just a hair below the total GDP of Mexico. (Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2016).
Moreover, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reports that undocumented immigrants contribute about $11.6 billion in taxes each year. Economic activity produced by illegal immigrant spending employs about 5% of the total U.S. workforce. Undocumented workers occupy over 3 million dwellings, or just 4% of the total homes in the U.S.. UCLA research indicates that immigrants produce $15 billion of economic activity every year. Since nearly every dollar earned by illegal immigrants is spent immediately, it projects that approximately 8 million U.S. jobs are dependent on economic activity produced by illegal immigrants in the U.S. . (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Real Earnings," 2011), and (UCLA North American Integration and Development Center, "Labor Market
Impacts of Amnesty.")
In addition, the logistics involved in executing this "project" are tremendously challenging. Currently, the Department of Homeland Security's Immigration and Customs Enforcement division has the capacity to remove roughly 400,000 people per year. Deporting more than 11 million people within two years would mean boosting the ICE's ranks from the current 5,000 workers devoted to apprehending undocumented immigrants to more than 90,000. Not only that, a recent study projects that it would take 32,000 new immigration attorneys to process cases, hundreds of thousands
of extra detention beds, 17,000 chartered airplane flights, and 30,000 bus trips each year.
None of this is intended to suggest that border security is not a legitimate concern. It is. So is considering the consequences of pursuing ill-considered policies solely intended to placate a political
base. Popular opinion does not develop in a vacuum. Our populist base believes whatever politicians taking advantage of its fears and disgruntlement feed it. Roughly 40% of all undocumented workers in this country are illegal because they overstay their visas. Although Mexico is still the dominant source of illegal immigration, its contribution has declined to around 52%, while unauthorized immigration from Asia, Central America and sub-Saharan Africa has significantly increased. (The Pew Research Center, "Hispanic Trends," September 20, 2016). Undocumented workers do not take American jobs away. In fact, deporting unauthorized immigrants will have an adverse effect on economic activity, and leads to reducing job opportunities for legal citizens. Immigrants, illegal, undocumented, unauthorized, or whatever anyone wants to call them, contribute substantially to our economy. It is time to change the conversation. Our politicians, especially those who feel compelled to support our President in whatever he suggests, need to decide to what extent they will support a likely ineffective deportation policy, a populist pipe dream which is politically popular, or come back to earth to fiscal sanity.
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