With all the venomous rhetoric spewed throughout the campaign, what will happen after the election is finally over is still very much in question. Nevertheless, this is decision time, and we are compelled to do our civic duty. As Theodore Roosevelt aptly observed: "In any moment of decision, the best thing to do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing." Before we begin to express concerns about potential implications of the outcome of this election, we should focus on how that decision is actually reached.
Most of us are aware that the popular vote does not decide the election. We vote for electors who represent us in the Electoral College. The number of electors each state is allotted is equal to the number of members of Congress to which they are entitled. Combined, these amount to 538 electors. This means that the winner will need to collect 270 electoral votes to be elected President. Most states use a winner take all system. Maine and Nebraska allocate their electors by Congressional District. Once the votes are in, the Electoral College meets the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to officially verify the outcome. This year that will be December 19.
While all states participate in the election, the real battle takes place in so-called "battleground" or "toss-up" states. Democrats traditionally control the outcome on both coasts, with the possible exception of Florida, while Republicans have historically exerted more of a strangle-hold on the central and southern states. This year the dynamics could prove to be somewhat different. The Associated Press has rated 278 electoral votes to be safely Democratic. Their list of toss-ups include: North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire, totaling 72 electoral votes. The Republican nominee needs to win all of these to have a chance at reaching the 270 target. Other states that could be in play are Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and possibly even Arizona and Georgia, both traditional Republican strongholds. In Utah, which has traditionally voted safely Republican, a political unknown, Evan McMullin, could have a shot at winning that state's election. Another race to watch, if for no other reason than curiosity, is the Senate race in Louisiana, where ex KKK Grand Wizard David Duke is, again, attempting to get elected. An estimated 50 million plus votes will already have been cast before we get to November 8. A very sizable percentage, considering that we have 146 million registered voters, of which only 126 million voted in the 2012 election.
Aside from the selection of a new President, 469 congressional seats are up for election as well, 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats. Republicans control 246 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats occupy 186. Three are vacant. To retain control of the House, the GOP can lose no more than 29 seats. The Cook Political Report has rated 57 seats as "competitive."
On the Senate side the battle for control is significantly tighter. If Clinton is elected, Democrats need to turn 4 Republican seats to get control of the Senate, 5 if Trumps gains the presidency. (Democratic VP candidate Tim Kane would hold the tie breaker in a Clinton administration.) Republican incumbents at risk are: Mark Kirk, Illinois; Ron Johnson, Wisconsin; Kelly Ayote, New Hampshire; Patrick Toomey, Pennsylvania; Rob Portman, Ohio; Marco Rubio, Florida; and the open seat in Indiana contested by Democrat Evan Bayh and Republican Todd Young. In Nevada the seat being vacated by Senator Harry Reid, a Democrat, could be in play for the GOP. Leaders in both parties consider the battle for control of the Senate almost as significant and consequential as the contest for the White House.
Local candidates, bundled with a myriad of initiatives, dot the ballots in every state. Proposals covering the death penalty, marijuana reform, gun control, tax proposals and others are presented in hundreds of ballot initiatives offered up in states across the country. Throughout the years some of these have been real odd-balls. It has not been unusual to find ballot measures like: "Should we prohibit toxic waste in our drinking water?" (1986); "Should a police officer get to walk his beat with a ventriloquist dummy?" (1993); "Should we give $1 million to one random voter?" (2006).Or, as we see on our California ballot this year: "Should porn actors be required to wear condoms?"
Donald Trump recently proclaimed: "We should just cancel the election and declare me the winner." Hillary Clinton's team seems to be confident that their candidate is the odds on favorite to be elected President. While confidence promotes optimism, we should keep in mind what happened during the 1948 election between President Truman and Governor Dewey. With Dewey well ahead in all the polls, the Chicago Daily Tribune jumped the gun and announced in its morning edition on November 3rd that "Dewey Defeats Truman," only to be confronted with what has been called "the greatest upset in our history." (Truman beat Dewey by 114 electoral votes.)
Most of us are aware that the popular vote does not decide the election. We vote for electors who represent us in the Electoral College. The number of electors each state is allotted is equal to the number of members of Congress to which they are entitled. Combined, these amount to 538 electors. This means that the winner will need to collect 270 electoral votes to be elected President. Most states use a winner take all system. Maine and Nebraska allocate their electors by Congressional District. Once the votes are in, the Electoral College meets the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to officially verify the outcome. This year that will be December 19.
While all states participate in the election, the real battle takes place in so-called "battleground" or "toss-up" states. Democrats traditionally control the outcome on both coasts, with the possible exception of Florida, while Republicans have historically exerted more of a strangle-hold on the central and southern states. This year the dynamics could prove to be somewhat different. The Associated Press has rated 278 electoral votes to be safely Democratic. Their list of toss-ups include: North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire, totaling 72 electoral votes. The Republican nominee needs to win all of these to have a chance at reaching the 270 target. Other states that could be in play are Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and possibly even Arizona and Georgia, both traditional Republican strongholds. In Utah, which has traditionally voted safely Republican, a political unknown, Evan McMullin, could have a shot at winning that state's election. Another race to watch, if for no other reason than curiosity, is the Senate race in Louisiana, where ex KKK Grand Wizard David Duke is, again, attempting to get elected. An estimated 50 million plus votes will already have been cast before we get to November 8. A very sizable percentage, considering that we have 146 million registered voters, of which only 126 million voted in the 2012 election.
Aside from the selection of a new President, 469 congressional seats are up for election as well, 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats. Republicans control 246 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats occupy 186. Three are vacant. To retain control of the House, the GOP can lose no more than 29 seats. The Cook Political Report has rated 57 seats as "competitive."
On the Senate side the battle for control is significantly tighter. If Clinton is elected, Democrats need to turn 4 Republican seats to get control of the Senate, 5 if Trumps gains the presidency. (Democratic VP candidate Tim Kane would hold the tie breaker in a Clinton administration.) Republican incumbents at risk are: Mark Kirk, Illinois; Ron Johnson, Wisconsin; Kelly Ayote, New Hampshire; Patrick Toomey, Pennsylvania; Rob Portman, Ohio; Marco Rubio, Florida; and the open seat in Indiana contested by Democrat Evan Bayh and Republican Todd Young. In Nevada the seat being vacated by Senator Harry Reid, a Democrat, could be in play for the GOP. Leaders in both parties consider the battle for control of the Senate almost as significant and consequential as the contest for the White House.
Local candidates, bundled with a myriad of initiatives, dot the ballots in every state. Proposals covering the death penalty, marijuana reform, gun control, tax proposals and others are presented in hundreds of ballot initiatives offered up in states across the country. Throughout the years some of these have been real odd-balls. It has not been unusual to find ballot measures like: "Should we prohibit toxic waste in our drinking water?" (1986); "Should a police officer get to walk his beat with a ventriloquist dummy?" (1993); "Should we give $1 million to one random voter?" (2006).Or, as we see on our California ballot this year: "Should porn actors be required to wear condoms?"
Donald Trump recently proclaimed: "We should just cancel the election and declare me the winner." Hillary Clinton's team seems to be confident that their candidate is the odds on favorite to be elected President. While confidence promotes optimism, we should keep in mind what happened during the 1948 election between President Truman and Governor Dewey. With Dewey well ahead in all the polls, the Chicago Daily Tribune jumped the gun and announced in its morning edition on November 3rd that "Dewey Defeats Truman," only to be confronted with what has been called "the greatest upset in our history." (Truman beat Dewey by 114 electoral votes.)
Something to consider when we watch the returns coming in. It is not over until it actually is. What happens next will depend on who wins.
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