This post was supposed to be titled "What's Next?". While the answers to this question are now probably more important than ever, the first thing that comes to mind right now is "What Happened?"
While most analysts, pollsters, and political pundits are busy explaining why they were wrong predicting a vastly different outcome, some will suggest that there were indicators that Donald Trump winning the election, while surviving a brutal campaign, was not entirely unexpected. Some experts, perhaps afraid to end up on the wrong side of the prognosis, timidly cautioned not to forget what happened in the U.K. earlier this year when Britons were asked, in a referendum commonly referred to as "Brexit," whether or not to stay in the European Union. Polls massively predicted a "stay" vote, only to be stunned by a 52% to 48% defeat.
The similarities to what happened in our election are striking. Both countries, and for this matter most continental European countries as well, are experiencing a populist surge. While an increasing exhibition of populist anger has been recognized during election campaigns, the phenomenon infrequently developed into a predictable threat to real power. Because of labels like "ignorant" and "degenerate" the establishment attempted to attach to this group, a substantial number of these voters remained publicly silent about their intentions. In the U.S., as well as in Great Britain, this silent electorate produced largely unexpected election results.
We are engaged in a cultural civil war. A struggle between a mostly rural, blue collar, older, mostly white population segment which feels estranged from the social and demographic trends that are reshaping their country, against multi-cultural urbanites, social liberals, immigrants and minorities, supported by a status-quo elite structure that has ignored them. Populist demagogues across the spectrum successfully corral this sentiment, and provide simplistic answers to real problems. Instead of suggesting the workable solutions complicated challenges demand, they provide scapegoats like globalization, immigration, trade agreements, and government failure. "Let's Make America Great Again," in reality, becomes "Let's Make America White Again." Our election was about "restoration" against "transformation." It was not just about "change." For populists it was about turning the clock back to a more traditional time. The concerns about losing jobs and the elimination of entire industries is not just about losing income and obstructing a path to joining the middle class. It is about ending the progression of the social and demographic changes that threaten the identity of many lost in their own country.
Politicians leading this civil war view it as a revolutionary movement. Nigel Farage, head of the United Kingdom Independence Party, who led the campaign for Brexit, was energized by Donald Trump's electoral success, proclaiming: "The revolution continues!
So, what's next?
There will be plenty of time to assess the aftermath of the election when we move into 2017. We can only contemplate some of the following:
* The wall along our southern border could become a reality, even if Mexico won't pay for it.
* The Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare) is on life support. The insurance of 20 million people could be at risk.
* The Trans Pacific Partnership treaty is dead.
* Judge Merrick Garland's elevation to the Supreme Court is dead.
* The Iran Agreement is in trouble. However, since this is a multi-lateral agreement, us pulling out won't kill it.
* NAFTA could be in trouble.
* Eleven million undocumented workers and three million American Muslims are worried about their future status, especially now that Steve Bannon, Executive Chairman of The Breitbart News, an explicitly racist organization, has become Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to the President-Elect.
* Impeachment of Hillary Clinton is now off the table. However, House Republicans are planning to "continue investigating her for years to come."
* Mike Pence won't be running for President in 2020.
* The Democratic Party is fielding calls to replace the Electoral College with a system using only the popular vote when selecting a President. This movement gained traction after the 2000 election, and since Clinton could well end up with 2 million more votes than Trump, the issue has again become popular.
A friend of mine composed a list of 123 promises candidate Trump made during the campaign. Supporters and opponents of the President Elect will surely maintain a running tab on what President Trump will actually follow thru on. As David Miliband, a British Labour Party politician, observed, when confronted with the Brexit vote in the U.K.: "Populism is popular until it gets elected - then it has to make decisions." The proof, as they say, is in the pudding.
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