WILL THE EUROPEAN UNION SURVIVE THE U.K. REFERENDUM?

While our political candidates are busily attempting to unify their support for the upcoming presidential election campaign, Europe is on edge  anticipating an up or down vote on whether Great Britain should continue its membership in the European Union. The contentious debate, which will culminate in a national referendum on June 23, has revealed deep political fractures in the U.K., and even led to warnings about peace and security in Europe. At E.U. Headquarters in Brussels paranoia has reached its peak. Although withdrawal from the European Union is a right of E.U. Member states under article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, no member state has ever held a national referendum on withdrawal. In 1975 the U.K. Did hold a referendum on withdrawal from its predecessor, the E.E.C., at which time 67.2% of voters chose to remain in the Community.

Dutch historian Dirk-Jan van Baar, in a column published in De Volkskrant earlier this year, assessed the situation from the European perspective when he opined: "This will be the first time that a member state leaves the E.U., a premiere which will attack the "irreversibility" of the European Union. Once started, the decline can pick up speed. David Cameron will go into history as the assassin of the E.U., a cowardly variant of Gravillo Princip, the Serbian student who in June 1914 fired the deadly shots in Sartajevo." A;lthough British Prime Minister David Cameron set the process in motion, he is actually campaigning for his country to remain part of the Union.

The two camps, "remain" and "leave," are not aligned along party lines. Cameron's position is opposed by half a dozen of his own ministers, led by former London Mayor and long-time friend Boris Johnson. While Johnson leads the "brexit" campaign with a sharp-tongued assault on Brussels, which he says saps Britain's sovereignty and burdens it with regulation, the Prime Minister has joined forces with London's new Mayor Sadiq Khan from the opposition Labour Party, a man he suggested last month had consorted with Islamic extremists. And, even though there is no love lost between the conservative Tories. And Labour, ten leaders of Britain's biggest trade unions, in a letter to The Guardian, issued a plea to six million members to stay in th E.U.. They warned that leaving would allow a Tory government to dismantle hard-won workers rights that the E.U. Now guarantees for British workers. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn even moved from his historic position as euroskeptic to advocating a vote to remain in the E.U..

As it has been since this divisive debate began, the polls attempting to predict the outcome of the referendum are all over the place. In late May the "remain" contingency was still leading 46% to 43%, with 11% "don't know." (Financial Times, May 31.) A week later Bloomberg had the "leave" campaign leading 45%-41%. And, as recently as June 13 The Guardian quoted a poll showing the "leave" campaign ahead by 6%. The latter campaign's recent surge in the polls appears to have been prompted by the release of new immigration numbers. The latest figures for 2015 revealed a net inflow of 318,000 migrants. Half came from E.U. Countries, and 40% from China, Pakistan, Australia and Malaysia. Peter Kellner, an experienced British pollster, noted that in previous referendums the safety of the status quo tended to dominate at the end. He suggested that the "leave" camp may dominate in on-line polling, but that in more traditional telephone polling the "remain" group leads by a substantial margin. He predicts they will win. While bookmakers report that millions of pounds are being bet on "leave," ostensibly for the potential pay-off, they privately believe that the "remain" camp has a 73% chance of succeeding.

Those promoting staying in the Union point out that the economic cost of leaving would be very high. Brexit would cause stocks to plunge and bond yields to rise. The pound is already heading lower. After leaving, British companies may not have the same access to the hugely important European market. Mr. Cameron is going all out to register the younger vote, and to get them to actually vote. Younger voters, under 30, favor remaining by almost 70%. In the mean time members of parliament who support staying in are already hedging, suggesting that the outcome of the referendum is principally advisory. They recognize that they would have to respect the mandate, if it got to that, but they feel they have plenty of latitude on how and when to quit the E.U.. Britain would have to notify the European Council of its intention, and a withdrawal agreement would then be negotiated with the Union, a process that could take as long as two years. So, while everyone appears to sit on pins and needles, the effect of a Brexit vote may not actually be felt for some time. However, the political ramifications would likely develop quite quickly. David Cameron may lose his job, Boris Johnson could ascend to become Prime Minister, anti E.U. Populist parties will take note, while Moscow would relish the outcome. Sergei Medvedev, professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, believes it is quite simple: Brexit=a weaker Europe=a stronger Russia. The balance of power in Europe would change.