DOES CALIFORNIA'S PRIMARY STILL MATTER?

Californians will go to the polls tomorrow to help select their party's nominees for a variety of offices, none more important than the presidency of the United States. It was not long ago that the political buzz was that California could finally matter this primary season. In February we encountered headlines like: "Could California cast deciding votes this primary season?" (The Press Enterprise). An L.A. Times article on March 31 suggested that "Donald Trump is about to blow up the California primary," indicating that his fate as Republican nominee could be at stake. And, as recently as April 12, news media intimated that California could decide who wins the Republican Party nomination.

The "experts" all agreed that Donald Trump could not get to the 1,237 delegates needed to win - even with California. Then Indiana happened, and his nomination essentially became reality. He has since acquired the requisite number of delegates needed to insure his coronation at his party's convention in July. Hillary Clinton's selection was never in doubt, although Bernie Sanders and his supporters are going all out to make a statement in California and wrest concessions from the Democratic establishment at their convention. Some of his supporters continue to believe that Sanders could overtake Clinton in the pledged delegate category with a win in California, giving him a moral claim to the nomination.

The relative irrelevance of the California primary this year must come as a disappointment to political consultants who expected better this cycle. The last time California really mattered for democrats was during the 1972 primary when George McGovern beat former Vice President Hubert Humphrey in a contest dominated by the debate over the Vietnam war. With his win McGovern clinched the nomination, only to lose the election to Richard Nixon. A Republican California primary has not made a difference since June of 1976, when "favorite son" and future President Ronald Reagan beat then-President Gerald Ford. Reagan lost the nomination, and Ford lost the election to Jimmy Carter.

The only time when primaries worked for California was when the contests were "winner-take-all" in both parties. George McGovern's win in 1972 gave him 15% of the delegates he needed to clinch the nomination. During the latter part of the 1970s both parties decided to adopt a proportional system, which meant that, in a close race, the winner might only get a few more delegates than the loser. The state did experiment with holding special elections in March (1996, 2000, 2004) and February (2008), but, although Arnold Schwarzenegger proclaimed that California would henceforth be important again in presidential nomination politics, the dynamics did not change.

The allocation of delegates during the upcoming primary is more significant for Democrats than Republicans. Republicans will divide 172 delegates, most of which will probably go to Donald Trump, although Ted Cruz and John Kasich are also still on the ballot. Of these, 13 go to the state-wide winner and 159 are awarded by district on a winner-take-all basis, three to be awarded by district. Democrats distribute 548 delegates - 158 are divided proportionately state-wide, 317 proportionately by district, and 73 are super-delegates. While the Republican primary is no longer competitive, recent polling suggests that Donald Trump is only getting 46.4% of the votes.

Even though the results in California won't change the outcome of the nomination contest for the Democrats, an outside observer, witnessing the intensity of the battle between Clinton and Sanders, would never know it. Bernie Sanders has vowed to take his campaign all the way to the convention. His supporters are fired up, and initiated an aggressive voter registration drive. Between January and April they (most new voters are inspired by Sanders) convinced 850,000 new voters to sign up. Another 600,000 re-registered, most likely because they moved or switched parties. Moreover, 200,000 recently registered through Facebook during a two-day stretch when the company stuck a voter registration button on news feeds, linking to the state's online registration system. Of the newly registered voters 50% signed up as Democrats, one-third Independent, and 16.7% Republican. Most were under 35 years old. The Democrats did open the primary to independents this year. This is important for the Sanders campaign. A little over one quarter of Democratic voters will be independent - a group Sanders has been winning by a large margin.

While the nomination contest hogs the headlines, it is prudent to remember that the California ballot also contains 34 candidates for U.S. Senator, multiple local contestants for U.S. Representative, State Senator, the California State Assembly, County Supervisor and bond measures Q and S in Santa Cruz County. Ample reason to vote, even if our presidential contest seems to have reached its climax. California won't be the only state running a primary in June. Puerto Rico votes on June 5. Joining California on the 7th are: New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota (Democratic caucus). On June 14 the District of Columbia goes to the polls (Democrats only). If the picture was cloudy at all going into the upcoming primaries, it should develop a measure of clarity after the dust is settled. Nevertheless, significant strategic battles will continue to surface during the run-up to the respective conventions at the end of July. The fireworks will extend well beyond Independence Day.