WILL THE EUROPEAN UNION SURVIVE THE U.K. REFERENDUM?

While our political candidates are busily attempting to unify their support for the upcoming presidential election campaign, Europe is on edge  anticipating an up or down vote on whether Great Britain should continue its membership in the European Union. The contentious debate, which will culminate in a national referendum on June 23, has revealed deep political fractures in the U.K., and even led to warnings about peace and security in Europe. At E.U. Headquarters in Brussels paranoia has reached its peak. Although withdrawal from the European Union is a right of E.U. Member states under article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, no member state has ever held a national referendum on withdrawal. In 1975 the U.K. Did hold a referendum on withdrawal from its predecessor, the E.E.C., at which time 67.2% of voters chose to remain in the Community.

Dutch historian Dirk-Jan van Baar, in a column published in De Volkskrant earlier this year, assessed the situation from the European perspective when he opined: "This will be the first time that a member state leaves the E.U., a premiere which will attack the "irreversibility" of the European Union. Once started, the decline can pick up speed. David Cameron will go into history as the assassin of the E.U., a cowardly variant of Gravillo Princip, the Serbian student who in June 1914 fired the deadly shots in Sartajevo." A;lthough British Prime Minister David Cameron set the process in motion, he is actually campaigning for his country to remain part of the Union.

The two camps, "remain" and "leave," are not aligned along party lines. Cameron's position is opposed by half a dozen of his own ministers, led by former London Mayor and long-time friend Boris Johnson. While Johnson leads the "brexit" campaign with a sharp-tongued assault on Brussels, which he says saps Britain's sovereignty and burdens it with regulation, the Prime Minister has joined forces with London's new Mayor Sadiq Khan from the opposition Labour Party, a man he suggested last month had consorted with Islamic extremists. And, even though there is no love lost between the conservative Tories. And Labour, ten leaders of Britain's biggest trade unions, in a letter to The Guardian, issued a plea to six million members to stay in th E.U.. They warned that leaving would allow a Tory government to dismantle hard-won workers rights that the E.U. Now guarantees for British workers. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn even moved from his historic position as euroskeptic to advocating a vote to remain in the E.U..

As it has been since this divisive debate began, the polls attempting to predict the outcome of the referendum are all over the place. In late May the "remain" contingency was still leading 46% to 43%, with 11% "don't know." (Financial Times, May 31.) A week later Bloomberg had the "leave" campaign leading 45%-41%. And, as recently as June 13 The Guardian quoted a poll showing the "leave" campaign ahead by 6%. The latter campaign's recent surge in the polls appears to have been prompted by the release of new immigration numbers. The latest figures for 2015 revealed a net inflow of 318,000 migrants. Half came from E.U. Countries, and 40% from China, Pakistan, Australia and Malaysia. Peter Kellner, an experienced British pollster, noted that in previous referendums the safety of the status quo tended to dominate at the end. He suggested that the "leave" camp may dominate in on-line polling, but that in more traditional telephone polling the "remain" group leads by a substantial margin. He predicts they will win. While bookmakers report that millions of pounds are being bet on "leave," ostensibly for the potential pay-off, they privately believe that the "remain" camp has a 73% chance of succeeding.

Those promoting staying in the Union point out that the economic cost of leaving would be very high. Brexit would cause stocks to plunge and bond yields to rise. The pound is already heading lower. After leaving, British companies may not have the same access to the hugely important European market. Mr. Cameron is going all out to register the younger vote, and to get them to actually vote. Younger voters, under 30, favor remaining by almost 70%. In the mean time members of parliament who support staying in are already hedging, suggesting that the outcome of the referendum is principally advisory. They recognize that they would have to respect the mandate, if it got to that, but they feel they have plenty of latitude on how and when to quit the E.U.. Britain would have to notify the European Council of its intention, and a withdrawal agreement would then be negotiated with the Union, a process that could take as long as two years. So, while everyone appears to sit on pins and needles, the effect of a Brexit vote may not actually be felt for some time. However, the political ramifications would likely develop quite quickly. David Cameron may lose his job, Boris Johnson could ascend to become Prime Minister, anti E.U. Populist parties will take note, while Moscow would relish the outcome. Sergei Medvedev, professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, believes it is quite simple: Brexit=a weaker Europe=a stronger Russia. The balance of power in Europe would change.

DOES CALIFORNIA'S PRIMARY STILL MATTER?

Californians will go to the polls tomorrow to help select their party's nominees for a variety of offices, none more important than the presidency of the United States. It was not long ago that the political buzz was that California could finally matter this primary season. In February we encountered headlines like: "Could California cast deciding votes this primary season?" (The Press Enterprise). An L.A. Times article on March 31 suggested that "Donald Trump is about to blow up the California primary," indicating that his fate as Republican nominee could be at stake. And, as recently as April 12, news media intimated that California could decide who wins the Republican Party nomination.

The "experts" all agreed that Donald Trump could not get to the 1,237 delegates needed to win - even with California. Then Indiana happened, and his nomination essentially became reality. He has since acquired the requisite number of delegates needed to insure his coronation at his party's convention in July. Hillary Clinton's selection was never in doubt, although Bernie Sanders and his supporters are going all out to make a statement in California and wrest concessions from the Democratic establishment at their convention. Some of his supporters continue to believe that Sanders could overtake Clinton in the pledged delegate category with a win in California, giving him a moral claim to the nomination.

The relative irrelevance of the California primary this year must come as a disappointment to political consultants who expected better this cycle. The last time California really mattered for democrats was during the 1972 primary when George McGovern beat former Vice President Hubert Humphrey in a contest dominated by the debate over the Vietnam war. With his win McGovern clinched the nomination, only to lose the election to Richard Nixon. A Republican California primary has not made a difference since June of 1976, when "favorite son" and future President Ronald Reagan beat then-President Gerald Ford. Reagan lost the nomination, and Ford lost the election to Jimmy Carter.

The only time when primaries worked for California was when the contests were "winner-take-all" in both parties. George McGovern's win in 1972 gave him 15% of the delegates he needed to clinch the nomination. During the latter part of the 1970s both parties decided to adopt a proportional system, which meant that, in a close race, the winner might only get a few more delegates than the loser. The state did experiment with holding special elections in March (1996, 2000, 2004) and February (2008), but, although Arnold Schwarzenegger proclaimed that California would henceforth be important again in presidential nomination politics, the dynamics did not change.

The allocation of delegates during the upcoming primary is more significant for Democrats than Republicans. Republicans will divide 172 delegates, most of which will probably go to Donald Trump, although Ted Cruz and John Kasich are also still on the ballot. Of these, 13 go to the state-wide winner and 159 are awarded by district on a winner-take-all basis, three to be awarded by district. Democrats distribute 548 delegates - 158 are divided proportionately state-wide, 317 proportionately by district, and 73 are super-delegates. While the Republican primary is no longer competitive, recent polling suggests that Donald Trump is only getting 46.4% of the votes.

Even though the results in California won't change the outcome of the nomination contest for the Democrats, an outside observer, witnessing the intensity of the battle between Clinton and Sanders, would never know it. Bernie Sanders has vowed to take his campaign all the way to the convention. His supporters are fired up, and initiated an aggressive voter registration drive. Between January and April they (most new voters are inspired by Sanders) convinced 850,000 new voters to sign up. Another 600,000 re-registered, most likely because they moved or switched parties. Moreover, 200,000 recently registered through Facebook during a two-day stretch when the company stuck a voter registration button on news feeds, linking to the state's online registration system. Of the newly registered voters 50% signed up as Democrats, one-third Independent, and 16.7% Republican. Most were under 35 years old. The Democrats did open the primary to independents this year. This is important for the Sanders campaign. A little over one quarter of Democratic voters will be independent - a group Sanders has been winning by a large margin.

While the nomination contest hogs the headlines, it is prudent to remember that the California ballot also contains 34 candidates for U.S. Senator, multiple local contestants for U.S. Representative, State Senator, the California State Assembly, County Supervisor and bond measures Q and S in Santa Cruz County. Ample reason to vote, even if our presidential contest seems to have reached its climax. California won't be the only state running a primary in June. Puerto Rico votes on June 5. Joining California on the 7th are: New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota and North Dakota (Democratic caucus). On June 14 the District of Columbia goes to the polls (Democrats only). If the picture was cloudy at all going into the upcoming primaries, it should develop a measure of clarity after the dust is settled. Nevertheless, significant strategic battles will continue to surface during the run-up to the respective conventions at the end of July. The fireworks will extend well beyond Independence Day.