This is an interesting angle about a topic many developed countries have been facing for some time. Not too long ago the world confronted a concern about high fertility rates and a rapidly growing population, culminating in the, now quiet, zero population movement. The tide has turned, and the worry now is about too few births and a falling population. Over 80 countries have fewer births than required to replace the number of individuals who die each year. Academics tell us that the total fertility rate (TFR), which equals the average number of children born to women over their lifetimes, needs to be at the replacement rate of 2.1. An estimated 48% of the world's populatioon lives in countries where women have children below the replacement rate. Europe and Asia lead the way. This is a significant concern. Retirement incomes, medical care and other social services are largely financed by taxes on the younger working population. Low birthrates eventually lead to fewer men and women of working age and a shrinking tax base. Aside from economic consequences, governments are concerned about other future demographic shifts. Left unchecked, Russia's population, currently at 144 million, could go below 100 million by the year 2050. One demographer claims that in 1,000 years the Japanese could be extinct. Japan's TFR currently stands at 1.39. In 2012 Japanese toiletries company Unicharm reported that sales of its adult diapers slightly surpassed baby diapers for the first time.
There are a number of reasons why birthrates have been shrinking: Greater access to health care and education; more opportunities for young people, particularly women; enhanced income levels in developed economies, and government regulated birth control - like China's one child policy - are at the top of the list. Whatever the reasons, many countries are now faced with the dilemma on how to encourage higher, or at least replacement-level fertility rates.
Countries with seriously and moderately deficient TFRs, based on 2014 estimates, include: Italy - 1.42; Austria - 1.43; Germany -1.44; Spain - 1.48; China - 1.55; Russia - 1.61 and Denmark - 1.73. Many of these and other countries are openly promoting increasing fertility rates. Denmark has been running an ad campaign asking Danes to book a romantic city holiday and "Do it for Denmark!" Singapore, with an FTR of 0.7, promotes "National Night," a campaign to let "patriotism explode." The audio portion of the ad states: "I am a patriotic husband. You are my patriotic wife. Let's do our civic duty, and manufacture life. The birthrate ain't going to spike itself." Singapore spends $1.3 billion per year on trying to convince its citizens to get busy. Russia, in 2007, declared September 12 as the "Day of Conception," in the hopes that giving couples the day off to do their civic duty would result in a baby spike nine months later on Russia's National Day, June 12. Women who gave birth on National Day could win refrigerators, money, even cars. Without a lot of hoopla France actually managed to improve its TFR from 1.74 in 2002 to 2.08 in 2014, thanks to a variety of pro-natalist initiatives such as tax deductions for dependents and paid maternity leave financed through its national health insurance system .
The highly charged political discussion about immigration, both in the U.S. and Europe, would benefit from assessing the effects today's discussions will have on the not too distant future. Some of Germany's industries face severe labor shortages. During the second quarter of this year it had almost 1.1 million job vacancies. Without immigrants, economists warn, Germany could soon struggle to pay pensions and care for its elderly. About one-third of Germany's population will be older than 65 by 2060. By comparisson our own TFR hovers around a relatively healthier 1.99. Much of this has been attributed to a more robust influx of immigrants. Immigrants have an outsized role in U.S. economic output because they are disproportionately likely to be working and are concentrated among prime working ages. Despite being 13% of the population, immigrants provide 16% of the labor force. The share of immigrants who own small businesses, 18%, is higher than the comparable share among U.S. born workers.
A review of the predicament many developing countries find themselves in should give us pause. Barring other methods of enhancing, or even maintaining, our fertility rate, immigration appears to be one of the elements that could provide a revenue enhancing labor force that may help us prepare for the care of an imminently aging population. However, chances are that our political pundits won't be convinced to make that argument for us.
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