Thursday, September 10, 2015

EUROPE'S MOMENT OF TRUTH - OR IS IT?

Aylan Kurdi might have been killed during the battle for Kobani between ISIS and the Pershmerga a year ago. However, he escaped with an estimated 400,000 refugees searching for a safer and more receptive place, only to be found floating face down in the Aegean Sea a little over a week ago. His father brought his body and that of his brother and mother back to be buried in his hometown, or whatever is left of it after 70% of the city was destroyed. And the world is asking: "What is Europe doing to remedy this refugee problem. After all, it is all taking place on its doorstep."

This begs the question of what the world was doing to help prevent the carnage leading to the tragic migration of desperate people literally running for their lives when the Syrian civil war broke out, and, relative to Europe, how is it alone going to cope with the overwhelming mass migration which, at this point, appears unstoppable.

Since the war broke out over 4 million residents of Syria have been uprooted, being barrel-bombed by their own government, killed by ISIS, and caught up in the cross-fire between competing factions - their lives and livelyhood uprooted forever. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon absorbed the first waves of refugees. Turkey housed 2.1 million migrants, Jordan 1.4 million and Lebanon 1.2 million. These countries are saturated and underfunded. The World Food Program has had to cut one-third of refugees in these host countries from their voucher program . Lebanon and Jordan currently receive only $14 perperson per month to help feed these refugees.

Enter Europe as a logical destination of choice. Although generally known to be receptive to helping people in need, this choice comes with multiple probems.

Sheer mass - During all of 2014 265,000 migrants entered Europe. By July 31 of this year the number had already reached 326,000 people. Greece alone processed 35,000 during all of 2014. As of July of this year it has had to accommodate 350,000 refugees.

Distance - Although Europe looks close on anyone's map, Germany - a destination of choice - is 2,000 miles from Syria. Traffickers promise to take people there. However, the journey is not only long and expensive ($400 to $2,500 per person), it is dangerous. This year so far 2,600 migrants are known to have died crossing the Mediterranean to reach Europe.

Processing - According to E.U. rules refugees need to register and apply for proper documentation in the country they land in when getting ashore. Given the geography, these countries are Greece and Italy, two countries attempting to cope with a five year debt crisis. They are the least economically viable alternatives for migrants desiring to move on to more stable Northern European countries.

Xenophobic nationalist movements - Most migrants don't want to register in countries they don't want to reside in. Many of them are intelligent professionals caught up in a civil war they did not ask for. They know what they want. Hence, Germany and more receptive European countries are the ones they aspire to. To get there they need to travel through countries not exactly excited to accommodate them. A typical route runs from Turkey to Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary and north from there. Several of these countries harbor politically substantial movements with strong anti- Islam and anti-ethnic sentiments. Viktor Orban - Hungary's Prime Minister, the man some have dubbed the "Donald Trump of Europe," has stressed that he intends to defend Hungary's borders against the mostly Muslim migrants. He plans to construct a razor-wire fence along his country's border with Serbia. Other countries with significant nationalist elements are also calculating the anticipated political backlash when deciding to what extent to follow Angela Merkel's suggestion about sharing the burden of settling refugees.

Security - Many countries have suggested that this mass exodus contains significant security issues. Isis and other organizations could easily infiltrate the unprocessed masses with devastating effect for vulnerable targets.

Domestic immigration policies - The European Commission in Brussels is slated to compose an E.U.-wide response to the challenge. However, individual countries can, under E.U. rules, adopt their own immigration policies. Germany has committed to accept 800,000 refugees this year. France, the U.K. and Sweden have agreed to lower numbers.

The root cause of this problem lies with the civil war in Syria. The Europeans are not able to correct  this. World powers like the U.S., Russia, China, and perhaps Iran and Saudi Arabia need to get involved to settle Syria. In the mean time helping to process this mass movement will take some of the pressure off, and keep us more secure.

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