Friday, July 17, 2015

Ignorance permeates the conversation about the Iran deal

It seems pathetic how much ignorance is driving the agitation against ratification of the recently concluded Iran deal. Much of the mindless opposition is guided by sound-bites and platitudes generated by candidates running in the 2016 presidential election, none of whom were involved in the discussion leading up to this, and most of whom had no contact whatsoever with any of its key players.

Madeleine Albright suggested, rightly so, that the critics should take the time to study the deal before spouting off on its contents.

Let's look at some of the facts that should be front and center:

1. Since 1979 sanctions on Iran have constantly increased, culminating in sanctions imposed by the United Nations in 2006 - signed off on by Russia and China as well - specifically targeting Iran's uranium enrichment program. Yet, according to the best intelligence we have, Iran is now only 6 months away from developing the capability to field a nuclear weapon.
2. Sanctions are unraveling. Russia announced in April that it will go forward with an old contract selling Iran an air defense system. Iran's Day Bank has already been re-admitted to the international financial system.
3. The agreement is not just between the U.S. and Iran - it was negotiated between the U.S., England, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran. Even if we renege, chances are that the other participants will go forward with it. Merkel, Hollande, Cameron, Putin and Jinping do not need our congressional consent.
4. Regardless of Netanyahu's political grandstanding, Israel is not in danger of annihilation, and arguably less so after the deal goes into effect than it is currently. Israel has the nuclear arsenal to defend itself if need be. It possesses hundreds of nuclear warheads, and it is not bound by the Nuclear Non-Prolifiration Treaty, since it decided not to be a signatory. (Iran is!).
The information just received was that Netanyahu will aggressively attempt to convince Congress to reject the deal with a veto proof majority.
5. Saudi Arabia is predominantly concerned with the potential of dropping oil prices if and when Iran again enters that market.
6. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a nuclear scientist by training who participated in the negotiations, agrees that the agreement is verifiable even if some of the inspections require a lag time of several weeks.

In short, this agreement considerably improves the status quo. Nothing our Congress does will change the situation on the ground. Foreign policy should not be driven by platitudes and sound-bites. Ignorance is no excuse, it isn't bliss, it is a curse. Do as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright suggested - study the content, and make up your mind about the merits of the deal intelligently.

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