CLIMATE GOING BERSERK

It has become a familiar horrific sight recently. Images of defeated, devastated people, lamenting that they lost everything: family members, their home, livelihood, family keepsakes, confidence in their future - all evaporated in a few agonizing moments, lost to fire or floods - leaving them uncertain about what to do next. What used to be anomalies, now appear to have become common occurrences. Catastrophic wildfires killed an estimated 3 billion animals in Australia in January of 2020. Perennial fires in California destroyed more than 4 million acres and 10,000 structures, killing 33 and costing over $12.1 billion that same year - the state's worst fire season in history. Calamitous flash floods in Eastern Kentucky and Appalachia already killed 37, while hundreds are still unaccounted for. A monstrous heatwave enveloped much of the globe, but seemingly centered on Western Europe, where most people do not have air conditioning. Temperatures averaged well over 100 degrees across the continent. They reached a lethal 117 degrees in Portugal and killed 2,000 on the Iberian peninsula. What used to be a climatic aberration melted roadways, buckled tarmacs, warped railroad tracks and, in turn, triggered wildfires across Southern Europe, displacing tens of thousands of its residents. Is this evidence of our climate going berserk? No! Believe it or not, it is caused by climate change, long identified, worse than expected, and consequences, perpetually predicted, manifesting much sooner than anticipated. There is convincing evidence that climate change is an existing, constantly evolving phenomenon. Human culpability and the means to confront or combat its consequences, however, have for decades been relegated to a political battleground. It is true, as some assert, that the earth's climate was changing well before humans emerged onto our planet. These changes were driven by large scale processes - like adjustments to the earth's orbit - which took tens of thousands of years to evolve. It was after the start of the Industrial Revolution, during the 1760s, that scientists began to measure detectable global temperature changes resulting from a spike in the release of greenhouse gasses, including carbon dioxide, methane and others. These gasses are trapped in the atmosphere and re-emitted to the earth, causing surface temperatures to increase. Over time the resulting climate change affected global temperature and precipitation patterns, which, in turn, influenced the intensity and, in some cases, the frequency of extreme environmental events, as we have experienced with increasing regularity during the past few years. With all the evidence of extreme climate change surrounding us, probably in perpetuity, it is confounding that there are still those who steadfastly deny that we have a problem. This would not be a serious issue if this group of skeptics remained a fringe element. However, some of the most ardent climate change deniers inhabit positions of significant power. They continue to argue that "climate change is natural and normal - we've seen fluctuations throughout history." The fact is that present climate change is occurring 20 to 50 times faster than the most rapid climate change events in history. Some believe that not all scientists agree that the change is actually happening and, if it does, that humans are the primary cause. Again, facts contradict that belief. More than 99% of scientists confirm that the phenomenon is real. The remaining 1% is likely composed of indecisive politicians that are funded by the fossil fuel industry. Even those that are on the fence claim that asserting a crisis condition is unwarranted, and that plants and animals will adapt to the change. In fact, climate change is happening too rapidly for species to adapt. Climate change accelerates extinction rates. More than one million species are at risk of extinction, and estimates are that dozens of species already go extinct every day. And then there is the prevailing argument that the economic impact of making substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions is too large. That we can't afford it. However, the ultimate cost of inaction or limited action to society is far greater than the cost of robust responses to climate change. Delaying action now will necessitate more aggressive action in the future - likely to be much more expensive. The U.S. government is actually already beginning to budget anticipated impacts of climate change at $2 trillion a year. Moreover, financial ramifications and political pressure by the fossil fuel industry aside, the human cost of inaction is overwhelming. A fairly recent study, identified as "the world's largest study of global climate," led by Monash University, one of Australia's leading educational institutions, links 5 million extra deaths a year to abnormal hot and cold temperatures caused by climate change. To be fair, even responsive and responsible legislators have difficulty getting their arms around the problem. Climate change is a global phenomenon, not confined within national boundaries. The mix of means needed to confront and combat its consequences is complex and repelled by entrenched economic and political interests. Alternatives to the use of fossil fuels are slow to develop, and are often ridiculed by some in policy making positions. However, we have already pushed the tipping point of no return for some time. We have no choice but to act. It must be done! A positive indicator emerging from the 2020 pandemic crisis shows us that we can make progress. In April that year, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions dropped 17% below those of previous years, and ended up 8% lower for the entire year, the largest annual drop since the second world war. Theo Wierdsma