FRENCH ELECTION IMPACTED BY RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

In just a few days, about 48 million French voters will go to the polls to select their next president. In what is traditionally a two step process, twelve candidates will face off on April 10. If one of them receives an absolute majority, he or she is elected president. If not, the top two contenders will compete in a run-off election on April 24. Since 1965, when the current direct election system was introduced, every election has gone to a second round. Until recently, the issues dominating the campaign centered on immigration, climate change, the ballooning national debt accumulated in fighting the coronavirus, and the country's troubled anti-terrorist effort in Mali, a former French colony. Once Russia invaded Ukraine, the focus shifted notably. Public debate moved from domestic issues to geopolitics. Campaign coverage almost ground to a halt. Political broadcasts were replaced by TV specials on Ukraine. At the same time the current crisis forced the candidates to rethink their political campaigns, the first time in recent history that they had been hijacked by foreign policy - an issue that is not usually a top priority for French voters. The French election is not only significant for France. The outcome could be consequential for the European Union and for the cohesion of the NATO alliance. France is one of the two largest EU member states. It has the second largest economy in the EU, and it is one of the founding states of the bloc. French leadership matters hugely to the future of the European project, which has continued to evolve since the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993. Its continued reliable stewardship during the current conflict is crucial. The country's approach to Russia has always been a significant, although inconsistent, element of presidential election campaigns, generally requiring guidance. Moreover, public support for NATO has dropped recently, from a high of 71% in 2009, to only 47% according to a recent poll. Besides, the French population is currently skewing towards becoming one of the most euroskeptic countries in the European Union. Given these trends, France's current president, Emanuel Macron, still the favorite to win the election, remains Europe's only hope. Macron has been one of the most visible and vocal European leaders responding to challenges facing the 27 member organization. He is openly attempting to fill the void created by the retirement of former German chancellor Angela Merkel. His ambition to lead a progressive revival of pro European liberals against national populists in France and across Europe is largely acknowledged. And his February 7 trip to Moscow in a diplomatic effort to talk with Putin and negotiate deescalation of the current conflict, although unsuccessful, allowed him to look like Europe's de-facto leader in the quest for constructive engagement with Russia. His most prominent opponents may think twice about criticizing their president too blatantly now that there is a war on European soil, for fear of appearing to work against France's interests. What concerns much of the rest of Europe is that Macon's opponents in this election tend to be euroskeptic, and that they have displayed cozy views on Moscow and Vladimir Putin. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, the odds on favorite to end up in second place behind Macron, has long maintained a special connection to Russia and the Putin regime. Russia even funded part of her presidential campaign five years ago. She has openly proclaimed that she believes Ukraine belongs to Russia's sphere of influence. She intends to withdraw France from NATO's Military Command structure - something Charles de Gaulle did in 1966, but was reinstated by Nicolas Sarkozy in 2009. She does not like article 5 of the NATO treaty, opposes military assistance to Ukraine and continues to be a staunch euroskeptic, even though she served in the European Parliament until 2017. If elected, she would be a disturbing force in European politics. Currently polling in third place, hard-left Jean Luc Melenchon, is radically opposed to NATO, calling it a "tool of subservience to the United States, He wants France to stay entirely out of the fray and he says that he understands why Putin feels threatened by the perceived encirclement of Russia by NATO. The current war has not changed his perspective. Further down the list, but diluting far-right support for Le Pen, sits Eric Zemmour, a TV personality who turned his notoriety into a platform for anti-immigrant venom. He adamantly opposes NATO and, while condemning Russia's aggression, he holds NATO responsible for the war in Ukraine. Putin's aggressive action in Ukraine served to unite and focus the 30 member states that make up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. At the same time, the war motivated all but one the most euroskeptic European Union member states to sign on to a unified and determined response. The outcome of the French election could potentially disrupt this cooperative approach, not just for the short term, but for the indefinite future, affecting European strategies for years to come, and possibly leave Ukraine and other former Soviet states wondering about an uncertain future. Now that Viktor Orban's April 3rd election victory in Hungary will likely keep that country officially in, or close to, Putin's camp, the stakes are high for the rest of Europe, much of which hopes that Emmanuel Macron pulls out a win and will continue to lead the continent during the next five years. Theo Wierdsma