ARE MASS MIGRATIONS THE NEW NORMAL?

Few recent international developments have been as contentious and politically charged as the response to mass migration and the plight of refugees. Politicians and actual policy makers on all sides of the ideological spectrum have chimed in on the issue, and multiple administrations in the U.S. and the E.U. have been forced to include the subject in their respective agendas. From the very beginning of his election campaign, past President Donald Trump made clear that opposing uncontrolled migration was a prominent element of his electoral program. Most of us will remember his descent from the escalator chastising Mexico for bringing people to our border that were bringing drugs, crime, were rapists, and some were assumed to be good people. His obsession with building a wall on our Southern border continued to dominate his political objectives. President Biden's administration was forced to respond quickly when a flood of migrants, mostly Haitian nationals, began sheltering near Del Rio, Texas. The numbers were overwhelming. Ultimately, 30,000 were apprehended or expelled. About 8,000 willingly returned to Mexico, and 12,000 were allowed to enter to have their request for asylum evaluated. Meanwhile another 19,000 were waiting to cross the border into Panama. And few interested observers will forget the European refugee crisis, which began around 2011, and peaked in 2015 when more than 1.3 million refugees, mostly Syrians, entered Europe and destabilized the E.U. in the process. While much of this may be new to the casual observer, mass migration has gone on for centuries. The current movement of people is minuscule by comparison. Between the 16th and 19th centuries, during the slave trade, 12.8 million Africans were shipped across the Atlantic. Beginning in the 1840s, the so-called "Great Atlantic Migration," brought in more than 3 million immigrants from Ireland and Germany. And between 1880 and 1910 an additional 17 million Europeans, mostly from Eastern Europe, followed. All in all, between 1820 and 1980, 37 million Europeans reached our shores. Over a period of 400 years, from the late 1600s through the 20th century, the northern half of Asia and parts of Africa were colonized by European migrants. The overseas migration of Europeans during this period exceeded 60 million people. Within recorded history, human migration transformed the entire aspects of lands and continents, and the racial, ethnic, and linguistic composition of their populations. Until fairly recently, there was a consensus among target countries that migration was a good thing - a central value to Western society. It was a given that letting immigrants in was beneficial for the society and the economy. Proponents saw increased economic growth, more flexible labor markets, filling vacancies in unpopular jobs. However, during the past decade or so, these principles are now being questioned - especially in the U.S. and Europe. New cultures, languages and economic demands of immigrants have roiled western societies during the past decade, making migration a new focus of international concern. Much of this seems to stem from a growing identity crisis among native born populations which are beginning to see dramatic shifts in their cultural composition as a result of an influx of non-white groups into their demographic make-up. Recent election results, dominated by populist candidates, reflect a growing reaction of predominantly white majorities in the U.S., France, the U.K. and Germany to their own demographic demise. While migration is a complex story, many are beginning to see it in simplistic terms. There are "natives" who belong, and "foreigners" who don't. In the U.S. and Europe we are now seeing the rise of openly anti-immigrant parties that are willing to pay fairly high costs in order to "regain control of their borders." Brexit in the U.K., Lega-Nord in Italy, Alternative for Germany (AFD), and the Party for Freedom in The Netherlands are just a few. In the mean time, autocrats are attempting to weaponize migrant movements, organizing or threatening to organize a sudden influx of refugees into another country with the intent of overwhelming its borders or causing political discomfort. Belarus dictator Aleksander Lukashenko is doing just that on the country's border with Poland. And almost daily we are confronted with the human tragedy of hundreds of desperate migrants drowning in the Mediterranean or languishing in detention camps. The current global estimate is that, in 2020, there were around 281 million international migrants in the world. This amounts to 3.6% of the global population. While this may be the culmination of what could be considered the new normal, it is not too much of a stretch to suggest that, at some point, we could foresee a substantial turnaround in popular attitudes. The western world is getting older. The replacement fertility rate is dropping, especially in developed countries. Populations are not being replaced as needed. Soon we will be looking again for younger, skilled workers to keep our economies healthy. Multiple countries are already revising their immigration policies. We may have to come to grips with our identity problems out of necessity. Theo Wierdsma