ELECTIONS IMPEDE E.U. COVID RESPONSE

At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the European Union, governments of member states invoking draconian measures in attempts to control the spread of the virus could do no wrong. Few complained when anti-democratic authoritarian methods were used to enforce restrictive regulations. Many countries crawled back within their own boundaries, and multiple "Schengen area" countries closed their borders to stem the spread of the virus. Approval ratings for national governments soared. Italy's leaders' public support grew 27%, while Germany's and France's confidence in government improved by 11% each. After several months of relative success, infatuation with prolonged resolute leadership is rapidly fading, affecting both the political will and popular compliance. During the last few weeks a surging pandemic has come roaring back across Europe. This one promises to be as significant as the one contacted during the same time last year. However, this time different elements are in play. The science has evolved, and we now know more of what we are facing. This version of the pandemic is predominantly driven by the U.K. variant, B117, which, according to several studies, is 60% more lethal than other strains. It hit during a period of relaxed compliance with health directives, increased resistance to drastic responses implemented to subdue the virus, growing fatigue and diminishing confidence in governments' ability to counter the epidemic. And for several major countries, leaders are caught up in the middle of political campaigns focused on impending and consequential national elections. The latter has led to conflicting messaging between health professionals and dominant politicians, often resulting in hesitant guidance when resolute leadership is again called for. Of scheduled elections, not all are terribly consequential for the E.U. per se, although in every instance responses to the pandemic affect the outcome. Portugal, which voted January 24, re-elected, largely ceremonial, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The country pointedly waited until the day after the election to introduce a new national lock-down. Italy's government fell mid-January when former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi pulled his centrist party "Italia Viva" from the ruling coalition, effectively unseating P.M. Giuseppe Conte's government. Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, was sworn in a few weeks later as P.M. of an emergency government, supported by all major parties. Unencumbered by upcoming elections, he essentially placed the entire country again under lock-down. Elections in The Netherlands were completed on March 17. Center-right Prime Minister Mark Rutte, running for a 4th term, was extremely popular last year as he steered the country through the pandemic which killed 16,000 people in The Netherlands. However, his popularity dropped significantly during recent weeks as public support for a month-long lock-down declined. Nevertheless, he retained sufficient support to be re-elected, and claimed 35 seats for his party in the new parliament. Notable, however, was the strength of far-right opposition parties which came in with a combined 29 seats. In none of these situations were elected legislators significantly handicapped politically when selecting strategies to combat the resurgent pandemic. Not so with the run-up of the very consequential German federal election scheduled for September 26, and France's presidential election in April of 2022. They are consequential, because in either case leadership positions in the E.U. are at stake. The timing of the German federal election corresponds to the date that Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to step down after 16 years in office. Merkel's leadership has been essential to the European Union. Provided her party will again be dominant leading the country following this election, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is also expected to assume the mantle of Chancellor. Back in January, Armin Laschet, Minister-President of the state of North Rhine-West Phalia, was elected to succeed Merkel as leader of the party. But while Merkel's handling of Covid during the first phase was widely applauded, her response to the current phase is no longer popular. Perhaps consequentially, the CDU has already lost two regional elections. In excess of 88% of voters are dissatisfied with the slow vaccine roll-out, especially after the government decided to temporarily suspend use of the Oxford/AstraZenica vaccine. Merkel's plan to ease Germany's lock-down, designed to counter national dissatisfaction, is also in disarray. Parts of Germany is shutting down again anyway. In a matter of weeks, the CDU's "Covid bonus" evaporated almost entirely. And the party does not have the political will to implement the essential restrictions its health advisors are recommending. While France's national election won't take place until April next year, strategic positioning is already taking place full steam. President Emanual Macron's "La Republique en Marche" will face significant competition from Marine Le Pen's, far-right, Euroskeptic, "National Rally." Her party is gaining substantial ground, not in the slightest because of spreading coronavirus fatigue. Avoiding lock-downs is a mainstay of Macron's management of the Covid-19 epidemic. He appears keen to avoid the measure at all cost in a bid to safeguard the social and economic life in the country. However, Minister of Health Olivier Veran disagrees and recently reinstalled a lock-down of the Paris region and Hauts de France for another four weeks to combat the current phase. The point of all this is that politicians up for reelection seem to have become gun-shy, afraid of implementing drastic restrictions on populations already exhausted and frustrated with ongoing constraints, no matter how necessary. It does not help that the E.U. has dragged its feet approving the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, and that the use of AstraZenica was suspended by 15 countries over reports of dangerous blood clots in some recipients. Observers have charged that the latter was very much a politically "safe" move. The European Medicines Agency, which recently cleared the vaccine, had been investigating 30 cases of unusual blood disorders among 5 million recipients on the continent and 11 million in the U.K. The agency's "go ahead" was welcomed, but the damage was done. Many potential European recipients remain skeptical about the vaccine's safety. The current pandemic wave could have been ameliorated with greater emphasis on expediting vaccination programs and systemic responses that were less politically cautious. Theo Wierdsma