GREAT BRITAIN UNDER SIEGE

On December 8, Margaret Keenan, a 91 year old British grandmother, became the first person in Britain and the West to receive a vaccine against Covid-19. This was a big deal, and much of the British population celebrated, filled with pride and hope that there was light at the end of a long, unsettling and painful tunnel. Two weeks later jubilation turned to trepidation when epidemiologists discovered that a new and 56-70% more contagious variant of the coronavirus was sweeping the United Kingdom. As if this was not enough, many in the country were becoming increasingly apprehensive about the consequences of Brexit negotiations with the EU, which were in their ultimate phase, but not terribly promising. Brexit being concluded by the end of the year was long anticipated. However, reality was finally sinking in. All in all the U.K. experienced a double whammy. The more immediate crisis, the coronavirus variant, generated anxious responses from all over. Prime Minister Boris Johnson intensified the U.K. lock-down protocols, essentially eliminating most Christmas celebrations. One nation after another imposed flight restrictions on Britain. France barred entry of trucks from the U.K., and even though this edict lasted only a few days, the border closing left more than 1,500 trucks stranded as the Port of Dover and the Euro tunnel were shut to outbound traffic, multiple countries began establishing and requiring systematic testing for the virus for people coming in from Britain. New York governor Andrew Cuomo demanded a halt to flights, and insisted that airlines flying into New York from the U.K. mandate that all passengers produce a negative Covid-19 test before boarding flights. The remainder of the country followed suit as of December 28. The panic response developed late and was probably less than effective. Infectious disease experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, opined that there was a good chance that the variant was already here. In light of the improbability that the variant had remained confined to Britain, the European Commission recommended rather quickly that member states lift their blanket bans on Britain. However, the emotional damage was already done. As this crisis developed, Brexit negotiations reached a last minute push for a U.K.-EU trade agreement with a December 31 deadline looming and progress fleeting. While P.M. Boris Johnson and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen meeting over dinner, and Mr. Johnson suggesting that he would leave without a deal, opinion polls in the U.K. indicated that positions in the country had shifted after its 2016 referendum. Currently 51% of those interviewed indicated they actually wanted the U.K. to remain part of the EU. At stake was not only termination of the free movement of goods across the English Channel for the first time in half a century. The recent memory of hundreds of trucks stuck at the Port of Dover only represented a small example of what could be anticipated during the logistical nightmare expected once the country effectively separated from the EU. Every day 10,000 trucks cross the Channel on ferries moving half of all goods between the U.K. and the continent. Terminating EU membership would mean that drivers and cargo required documentation going forward. New customs officers would need to be hired to test imports of meat and fresh produce, which meant that shipments that once breezed through could be held up for hours or days. It is estimated that for every 2 minutes of delay at the Port of Dover, a 17 mile traffic jam will be created on access roads. Besides, a "no deal" Brexit would mean that the EU could start taxing British imports from the beginning of January on, substantially raising prices. A last minute agreement was reached, which avoided the immediate imposition of tariffs on $900 billion of cross border trade. This is significant because last year the U,K relied on the EU for 50% of imports and 47% of exports, making it the U.K.'s single largest trading partner. However, the outcome is no substitute for the unfettered access to the largest single market in the world. The new agreement still throws more obstacles in the way for traders. The British government estimates that there will be 215 million extra customs declarations a year, nearly 600,000 a day, businesses have to process. And it is anticipated that the cumulative drop in GDP over the next 15 years could be a whopping 4%. Moreover, the prospect of a traffic nightmare at the Port is still expected to become a reality. Political opposition to Brexit is still powerful and is only getting stronger. Leaders in Scotland and Northern Ireland were quick to express their displeasure. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon issued the statement that "Brexit is happening against Scotland's will - and there is no deal that will make up what Brexit takes away from us." Northern Ireland's Social Democratic Labor Party leader Colum Eastwood chimed in, stating: "The entire Brexit fantasy is a future that people here do not want and did not vote for." The British government may believe that, for now, it is managing to limit the fallout of the recent crises it was forced to address. It ought to get prepared to confront the political backlash it is certain to encounter. The country is under stress. Its population feels besieged and may well be ready to shake off a populist yoke. Brexit, after all, was a populist pipe dream. Ultimately, national cohesion could be at stake. Theo Wierdsma