ELECTION RESULTS DEMAND CRITICAL SCRUTINY

We are less than two weeks away from election night 2020. Many of us have lived in tense anticipation for this day to arrive. Others just want to get it over with. Regardless of outcome, and regardless of political preference, occupants in many homes, while nervously following results as they filter in from across the country, have champagne waiting in their coolers, ready to be popped open. As results begin to be spewed out by the media, the information can quickly become overwhelming. It behooves us to remain selective and stay focused on what is important. After all, in 2016 Donald Trump ran consistently behind Hillary Clinton in national vote totals. Ultimately, Clinton won the popular contest by just shy of 3 million votes. However, Trump squeezed out 306 electoral votes, winning the election. While national polls project that former Vice-President Biden is savoring a double digit advantage over President Trump, we need to recognize that it might not matter how many votes each candidate receives if they don't come from the right states. In 2016, a hand full of electoral votes coming from what have since been referred to as "battleground states," helped Mr. Trump to surpass the 270 electoral votes required, elevating him into the presidency. The pundits predict that for the president to duplicate that feat, he needs to win most of these states again. Consequently, rather than zooming in on national results to gradually anticipate the outcome of this election, we ought to concentrate on results coming out of Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and a new battleground state, Arizona. With 29 electoral votes, Florida is key to Mr. Trump's re-election. In fact, experts suggest that there is no path for Trump to win the Electoral College without Florida. In 2016 candidate Trump won the state with a plurality of 49.0%, a 1.2% margin over Hillary Clinton. Recent polling suggests that Trump and Biden are tied in this all-important state. Four years ago Mr. Trump unexpectedly won Michigan's 16 electoral votes by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47,50% of the total votes over the 47,27% of Ms. Clinton. This year Joe Biden is well ahead in the polls in this state governed by Donald Trump's nemesis Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. It may take some time before Michigan can release results, since mail-in ballots in this state can't be opened until the day before the election. In 2016 Donald Trump became the first Republican to win Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes since Ronald Reagan did this in 1984. His victory margin was significant, 22.748 votes or 0.8%. However, fortunes could be changing. Right now the state is leaning Democratic. Polls give Biden a 5% edge. We may not find out who wins until after election day, since mail-in ballots can't be counted until November 3rd. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. Trump won the state with 48% of the vote in 2016. Biden currently polls ahead by 5%. Again, mail-in ballots won't be opened until election day. Arizona threatens to be a cliffhanger this election cycle. Mr. Trump won its 11 electoral votes by a comfortable margin of 3.5% during the previous general election. Biden is currently polling at +3%. No Democratic candidate for president has carried Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996. What is supporting the Democratic cause is a contentious Senate race between Senator Martha McSally (R), who was appointed to fill Senator McCain's seat, and former astronaut Mark Kelly, a Democrat who, among likely voters, is polling a 49-40% advantage. Aside from keeping track of the main event, a few other senatorial contests are also worth following: Susan Collins (R) in Maine, Joni Ernst (R) in Iowa, Cori Gardner (R) in Colorado, and Doug Jones (D) in Alabama. These could still create some excitement to help liven up a nerve-filled evening. Win or lose, my expectation is that we all can find an excuse to open up that bottle of champagne. Theo Wierdsma