FEAR FACTOR DOMINATES ELECTORAL STRATEGIES

"The only thing we have to fear is .... fear itself." Franklin Roosevelt's memorable proclamation, uttered during his first inauguration address on March 4, 1933, has been firmly entrenched in our political history. Short of the inauguration speech expected next January, both camps in the developing presidential election campaign seem thoroughly committed to employ the fear factor as well. President Trump aggressively cautions his political base that an electoral loss would unquestionably result in a radical socialist takeover of the country. Democratic candidate, former Vice President Biden, warns that four more years of Trump would lead to obliterating our democratic and constitutional values, thoroughly eliminating our country as we know it. In short, both candidates claim that their opponent would destroy our country's democratic framework. The fear of failure has become the most significant operative concept in either campaign. During the 2016 campaign, Mr. Trump ran as an outsider intent on shaking up the "deep state." His base of support cared little about his policy ideas. It enjoyed the president sticking it to an entrenched Washington elite. Ending up with a more conservative judiciary was a bonus. Almost four years later, the president goes to great lengths to defend his record in office, something unexpectedly made more difficult with the coronavirus pandemic, something the administration has been ill-equipped to come to grips with, and a tanking economy which still features 14 million unemployed, and a country $26 trillion in debt, $4.7 trillion more than the previous year. What was once a promising issue for the president, evaporated almost over night. No wonder that the Trump re-election strategy required significant re-engineering. Volatile, violent demonstrations, emanating from multiple "Black Lives Matter" flash points, provided the administration with what it felt it needed. Taking a page from a successful tactic employed by President Richard Nixon, it adopted the "law and order" mantra, focusing more on order than law. Infusing federal troops into cities experiencing significant unrest not only inflamed the demonstrations, it served to cement Mr. Trump's narrative that he was the defender of the fatherland. He quickly claimed: "I'm the only thing standing between the American Dream and total anarchy and chaos." "Do you want to be ruled by the radical left-wing mob, or do you ant to stand tall as free men and women in the greatest country on earth?" "We're going to have an election that is all about the survival of the nation." On the other hand, aside from heavily criticizing President Trump's handling of the ongoing pandemic, Democrats zoom in on his perceived affinity for autocratic leaders and dismissal of constitutional norms, are spreading fear of an impending Fascist dictatorship. Their playbook comes straight out of 20th century Europe, including: despotism of a single leader, suppression of the courts, (erasion of the independent judiciary), militarization of domestic life, and the merging of most economic life with governmental purposes. All of this obviously depends on a very liberal interpretation of facts on the ground. Mr. Biden now has the advantage of 3 1/2 years of history to work from. Whether either strategy will work is difficult to tell. Mr. Trump's base may not care what policy prescription the president is offering. Many of its members tend to favor style over substance. They like Trump because he fights the Washington elite in the way he does, no holds barred. Democrats essentially coalesce around an anti-Trump strategy, realizing hesitantly that so far their cause outpolls the president's in most states. One of their major fears is that, because of the expected influx of mail-in ballots, routinely declared suspect by the president, Mr. Trump could appear to have seized a decisive victory on election night, thanks to a delay in counting these ballots. Trump may declare himself the victor - crying foul as his lead evaporates as additional votes are counted, and challenge any loss based on the mail-in ballots, claiming the election was rigged. Our fear is that this spectacle could well turn into a serious constitutional crisis. Theo Wierdsma