The Democratic Party appears to be in turmoil over what strategy to pursue to affect President Trump's exit (Trexit) from the White House. While playing defense, the Republican Party is laser-focused on protecting their leader, who only garners a 39% approval rating, from electoral defeat in the rapidly approaching national election.
Democrats are in a quandary about whether to impeach or not impeach. With the election just 18 months away, how this dilemma is resolved would almost certainly have an effect on its outcome. National polls indicate that only 37% of respondents indicated they favor starting the impeachment process, while 56% oppose that idea. Moreover six in ten independents appear to be against impeachment now, a sign of potential electoral danger for Democrats.
Article II of our Constitution states that a president can be impeached for bribery, treason, or high crimes and misdemeanors. The latter condition is not defined, and its application is purely political. Pro "impeachment now" Democratic members of Congress point out that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's heavily redacted but revealing report identified at least ten instances of potential obstruction of justice, impeachable offenses if proven, providing a blueprint for Congress to decide how to handle them.
Congresswoman Maxine Waters is clear in her conviction, proclaiming: "We're going to have to impeach. I just wish it was sooner rather than later." Presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren the first of few major candidates to immediately call for impeachment, saying that "there is no political inconvenience exception to the United States Constitution," and asserted that President Trump's actions would "inflict a great and lasting damage on this country." Other candidates like Sen. Kamala Harris and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, publicly concurred. By contrast, mainstream Democrats warn about the political risks of an unsuccessful impeachment. While Democrats control the House, and could muster the simple majority it takes to adopt articles of impeachment, virtually every political observer concedes that the Republican Senate would never round up the 2/3 supermajority it takes to convict.
Party leaders fear that the impeachment process would work to President Trump's advantage, giving him the sympathy vote, especially while a significant segment of the public is growing tired of the ongoing Mueller probe. Sen. Cory Booker, another Democratic candidate for the presidency, said that "there is a lot more investigation that should go on before Congress comes to any conclusion like that," meaning the need to impeach. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand made clear that she feels that a meeting with Robert Mueller should precede any decision. Sen. Bernie Sanders reiterated as well that impeachment might distract from other important issues important to voters that "works to Trump's advantage."
Democratic congressional leaders cautiously remind their membership about what happened when Republicans impeached President Bill Clinton two decades ago. The House impeached Clinton in 1999. House Speaker Newt Gingrich intimate that they did "because we can." He predicted that, because of what they were doing, Republicans would gain 25-30 seats in the 2002 election. However, the Republican Senate failed to convict, Clinton became even more popular than his 72 percent approval rating at the start of the process, ostensibly because people saw his impeachment as Republican overreach. The Democrats ended up gaining five seats in the 2002 election, and Gingrich was forced to resign. Speaker Pelosi could direct Donald Trump's impeachment as well, "because she can." But party insiders fear that the fall-out could well mirror what happened in 2002.
Given this historical context, Republicans might actually prefer confronting impeachment proceedings over the drip, drip, drip of ongoing investigations into the multitude of instances Mueller identified as possibly bordering on obstruction of justice. Democrats run the risk of being branded one-trick ponies. Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell argued that Americans expect more from Congress, and suggested they pursue a legislative agenda that includes "lowering prescription drug prices, creating 16 million good-paying jobs through a real infrastructure plan, and to make sure our government is working" instead. With the election around the corner, timing also becomes a factor. President Nixon's impeachment process took 14 months from the start of the Watergate hearings until he resigned. Given that timeframe, impeachment might still be debated when the election takes place. Many Democrats are unlikely to enjoy that prospect.
Even as they strategize to reclaim the White House, Democrats would benefit from showing they are able to walk and chew gum. This involves compartmentalizing their constitutional oversight responsibilities involving ongoing investigations, while simultaneously advancing legislative objectives. Republicans would benefit from signing on to these pursuits as well, and the country at large would be the better for it.
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