Not since they dominated the world, recognized during its "Golden Age" in the 17th Century as the foremost maritime and economic power, have the Dutch received as much attention as they did this past month. They received all this attention because the Netherlands was the first E.U. country this year to hold a national election in which a far-right populist politician had a realistic chance of winning. Populist activists throughout Europe and the U.S. wondered out loud if the trend established by the U.K. Brexit decision, Rodrigo Duterte's election in the Philippines, and Donald Trump's ascendance in the U.S. would continue in advance of the French, the German, and a possible Italian election later this year. Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom, a vocal champion of this movement, achieved recognition as its poster-child, and gained support from many hard-right political operatives. Analysts contributing to the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and other major media outlets recognized the impending threat to the status quo in the E.U., and cautioned about consequences linked to its success. In a column titled: "How the Dutch Stopped Being Decent and Dull," (NYT, March 12, 2017) Ian Buruma, professor at Bard College, wrote: "What happens in the Netherlands could be a harbinger for other elections in Europe, and this also means that the future of the European Union is at stake." A month out, 77% of the electorate had yet to decide who to vote for, and three days out Wilders' party was still favored to win. When the March 15 election concluded, many in the European political establishment sighed with relief. Disaster was avoided - for now. Wilders lost and, by political standards, he lost big, only winning 20 out of 150 seats in the Dutch Parliament, well below current Prime Minister Mark Rutte's VVD party's 33.
What put him in the cross-hairs of supporters and opponents alike was his rabid stance on hard-right populist issues. He wanted to stop immigration from Muslim countries, close all mosques, ban the Quran and the burqua, and, for preventative reasons, imprison radical Muslims, even those who had not committed any crimes, while promising a "Brexit" type of referendum on the Netherlands' continued membership in the E.U.. His domestic supporters mirrored a segment of the electorate similar to that which helped elect Donald Trump in the U.S., and which pushed the U.K. to exit the Union. Within Europe Wilders was openly supported by prominent populists like Marine Le Pen in France, Frauke Petry in Germany, and Nigel Farage in the U.K.. Americans got into the act as well. David Horowitz, a home-grown right-wing activists who called Wilders the "Paul Revere of Europe," donated $150,000 to Wilders' effort - a sizable sum by Dutch standards. And Iowa Representative Steve King made news when he expressed his support for Mr. Wilders because of his stance on immigrants, saying that civilizations can't be restored with "somebody else's babies." Aside from overtly expressed support, Dutch officials continued to be fearful of surreptitious meddling by Russian operatives.
Even if Wilders' party had ended up winning the most seats, it was extremely unlikely that he would have become the next Prime Minister. All of the establishment parties had pledged not to work with him. Since the Dutch system is based on proportional representation, no party has ever won the majority outright. Coalition government is inevitable. Any party winning 0.67% of the vote - 1/150 of all votes cast - will secure one seat. Thirty parties participated in the recent election, some very much on the fringe. Labels like: "Party For Animals;" "Jesus Lives;" "Think!;" and the "Non Voters" are not unusual in the Dutch idiosyncratic system. Of these 13 gained seats. Ultimately Prime Minister Mark Rutte's platform, touting the country's economic stability under his People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, and the European Commission's forecast that the Dutch economy was projected to grow steadily at 2% this year, outperforming the E.U. as a whole, won out with he most, be it unexpected.
While some may zoom in on the fact that the hard-right populists were unsuccessful this time around, few analysts are predicting similar outcomes elsewhere in Europe later this year. Some media outlets suggested that the Dutch vote set the tone for Europe. However, Wilders' loss is only part of the story. The populists still control the narrative. To defeat the insurgency Mr. Rutte was forced to relinquish his "centrist" position on the political spectrum, and move further to the right. His strategy to beat back populism included co-opting it. He liked to say that Wilders' type of populism was the "wrong kind of populism." But it is clear that, because of the populist threat, much of the European electorate has moved further to the right. It has become more acceptable to be against Islam, Muslims and immigration.
One of the biggest shifts at the polls was the "collapse of the once powerful Labor Party, which won less that 6% of the vote, compared with 25% in the 2012 parliamentary elections." (Marcus Walker, Wall Street Journal). One of the big stories is that the top three political parties in the Netherlands, which won 85% of the total in 1985, and 74% in 2003, only collected 45% of the seats this year. The traditional left-right axis, with the communists and the socialists on the left, conservatives and capitalists on the right, bridged by moderate centrists, is going away. In the Netherlands "Labor" is in shambles, in the U.K. it is in turmoil, and in France the Socialists have become irrelevant. Smaller parties are flourishing and unstable coalitions are becoming the norm all over Europe. The main issues have shifted from the economy to immigration, E.U. membership, crime, security, national identity and globalization.
During the run-up to the election, Geert Wilders predicted that his exclusion from power would start a revolution. Establishment parties may have won the battle this time. However, the war is far from over. Some will claim that the "revolution" is still picking up speed.
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