On January 6, American intelligence officials published a declassified version of a report on Russian hacking. It concluded that, in 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin "ordered an influence campaign aimed at the US presidential election." Their assessment was that the Russian government developed "a clear preference for President-Elect Trump." Trump did not endorse these conclusions, but he did commit to task his administration with "devising a new plan to aggressively combat and stop cyber attacks."
Although the conclusions generated by this intelligence report had been public for many weeks, they were aggressively challenged by the incoming administration. However, most of our allies have been well aware of Kremlin attempts to re-shape anti-Russia, pro-America policy positions. While absorbing condemnation for annexing Crimea, suffering from punishing economic sanctions assessed by a unified European Union, guided and supported by the US, and facing what he considers a stranglehold on Russia's "sphere of influence" by a NATO alliance intent on constructing a missile defense system on its doorstep in Romania and Poland, Vladimir Putin actively, and often openly, strategized to divide and neuter the Western alliance. In a rapidly evolving political landscape, Mr. Putin's multi-level attempt appears to be bearing fruit.
Putin's approach involves the use of, both, pre- and post-Soviet methods. A case in point, reminiscent of cold-war antics, is that of Czech Republic President Milos Zeman. Zeman was Prime Minister from 1998 - 2002. He brought the Czech Republic into the EU, but lost his 2003 presidential bid, and retired. During subsequent years Mr. Zeman was actively courted by Russian operatives. He attempted a comeback in 2013, and won the presidency in an election campaign which, opponents charged, was financed by the Kremlin. Time and influence managed to dramatically change Mr. Zeman's political ideas, converting him from being a dominantly pro-Western and pro-EU politician to one openly favoring Russian interests and opposing the EU. In 2015 he even called for a Czechzit referendum to withdraw from the European Union. (Neil MacFarquhar, "How Russians Pay to Play in Other Countries," New York Times, December 30, 2016.)
Post Soviet infiltration methods include directly, and openly, financing political parties sympathetic to the Russian cause. In 2014, France's "National Front" received a $10.6 million loan from the Russian controlled First Czech Russian National Bank to help support its presidential campaign. This was said to be the first installment of a $42 million dollar loan. NF founder Jean-Marie Le Pen received a $2.65 million loan from a Cyprus based bank owned by a former KGB agent. Hungary secured a $10.8 billion Russian investment to finance expansion of a nuclear power plant that produces 40% of the country's electricity. Political observers suggest that this was not just a financial transaction. It appears to have been intended to buy influence, and pump money into the Hungarian economy in advance of the 2018 election campaign of pro-Russia, Eurosceptic, populist President Viktor Orban. Other instances of Russian financial support of right-wing opposition parties are widely suspected, but scarcely admitted.
It is clear that not all efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity emanate from Moscow. For its part, the European right sees the Russian leader as a staunch defender of national sovereignty and conservative values "who has challenged US influence and the idea of "Europe" in a way that mirrors its own convictions." (Alina Polyakova, "Strange Bedfellows: Putin and Europe's Far Right," World Affairs, September/ October 2014.) On the political left many of the insurgents are attracted to Russia's antipathy towards globalization and its challenge to the US dominated international capitalist order. ("Putin's Friends in Europe," European Council on Foreign Affairs, October 19, 2016.) "National Front" leader Marine Le Pen refers to Putin as someone who "does what is good for Russia and the Russians." Nigel Farage of the "UK Independence Party" goes a step further describing Putin as "a brilliant strategist who can outwit the West." Of all world leaders he admires Putin the most. Le Pen considers the sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its annexation of Crimea "American meddling in European affairs." She is not alone. Francois Fillon, the center-right candidate who will likely compete with her for the French presidency this coming May, argues for rapprochement with Russia as well. He opposes continuing the sanctions. Given that the EU requires unanimity among all its members if it wants to renew these when they expire next June, chances are excellent that Putin's courting of Europe' populist fringe is paying dividends.
It appears unlikely that the US will continue to take the lead in countering Russia's influence peddling. President-Elect Trump, Putin's favorite candidate, has openly supported the Russian leader. He characterized Putin's New York Times op-ed in 2013, ripping into the notion of American exceptionalism, as "a masterpiece." He denied that Putin assassinated opponents, saying that he "had not seen that. However,, if he did, that could be forgiven. At least, he is a leader." He celebrated Brexit, denounced NATO, and continues to insist that the Russians did not attempt to influence our 2016 election. One can only hope that, once he ascends to the White House, he will recognize that Mr. Putin's overtures are not designed to be benevolent. They are intended to change the political landscape in Russia's favor.
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