ELECTION 2016 - LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

With the long-awaited political conventions finally behind us, and the competing slates of presidential and vice presidential candidates in place, the political world is shifting its focus to the final 100 or so days of a contest that sometimes seemed to have no end.The race to the finish on November 8 is on. Early polling has the candidates of the dominant parties running neck-and-neck, separating them by about 4% - well within the margin of error. While this may be of some consequence and comfort to both, these polls, reflecting the national popular sentiment of voters, are ultimately irrelevant. In 1824 John Quincy Adams was elected President (by the House of Representatives) even though he amassed no majority of either electoral or popular votes; Rutherford B. Hayes won the 1876 election

By one electoral vote, but lost the popular vote by 90,000; and George W. Bush surpassed Al Gore's electoral tally 271-266, but missed the popular vote by a whopping 540,000 votes. Popular vote tallies may provide bragging rights, they don't count in the outcome of the contest.

When we vote for a President, we are actually voting for presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. These electors elect our chief executive. The Constitution assigns each state a number of electors equal to the combined total of the state's Senate and House of Representative delegation. The number of electors by state ranges from 3 to 54, for a total of 538. The magic number for the winner is 270. The vote results are counted and certified by a joint session of Congress on Januray 6 of the year following the election. If no candidate receives a majority, the President is elected by the House of Representatives, and the Vice President by the Senate. This happened when President John Quincy Adams was elected. The method of electing a President was established during the Constitutional Convention of 1787. The convention considered a number of different methods, including selection by Congress, by state legislatures and by direct popular election. The current system, which was adopted with the intent to reconcile differing state and federal interests. It also was thought to provide a degree of popular participation in the process, to give the less populous states some additional leverage by providing "senatorial" electors, and to preserve the presidency as independent from Congress. Today all presidential electors are chosen by popular vote.During the early republic more than half the states chose their electors in their legislatures, eliminating direct involvement by the voting public.

The upshot of all of this is that political junkies intent on keeping an eye on their favorite candidate's progress need to tune into polling in so-called battleground states. Traditionally, Democrats are counting West Coast and East Coast states like California, Oregon, Washington, New York and others as "safe." Republicans  "control" a large segment of the center and south of the country, including states like Utah, Idaho, Arizona, all the way to Georgia and South Carolina. The most intense battles will be fought in 8 to 10 states that have swung one way or another in previous elections. Perennial swing states include Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia, while minority voters, and the perceived relative qualities and characters of the dominant candidates, more states than usual may be up for grabs. Most nonpartisan political analysts currently see the electoral map tilting in the Democrats' favor. Merging the ratings from four major handicappers reveal a lopsided outlook if the election was held today, with 216 electoral votes considered safe for likely leaning Democrat. (Wall Street Journal, Jul;y 22). However, a lot can happen during the next 100 days.

Potential influences on the outcome in November include a series of debates, scheduled for September 26, and October 9 and 19. The VP debate will take place October 4. Aside from these debates, the relative strength of Gary Johnson, presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party, could have an out-sized impact on the performance of the dominant candidates. Mr. Johnson is already polling at 13%. He only needs to bump this up to 15% to be included in the debates, which would give him more exposure, and could potentially affect the outcome of the election. Finally, let's not forget the crucial "down-ballot" races that help determine which party controls Congress next year. The Republicans are defending 7 states which President Obama won twice. Republicans currently have a 54-44 advantage in the Senate. "Down ballot" races are frequently decided by who wins the White House. This year might be different. Either way, Democrats smell an opportunity.

All in all, there is a lot at stake during this election. Next January our Electoral College will, in a very real sense, cast ballots that could determine the direction of the country for some time to come. Our option is not to sit this one out. Become familliar with the important issues, listen to the debates, make educated decisions, and plan to vote with your head, not your heart. These races are too important.