Friday, April 22, 2016

EUROPE'S POPULIST EVOLUTION

Europe's populist movement, which for the longest time existed on the fringes and in the shadows, has evolved into politically powerful organizations challenging liberal democratic institutions and jeopardizing the continued existence of supranational organizations like the European Union. Populism is an ideology that considers society to be ultimately separated into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups, the "pure people" and the "corrupt elite." Populists hold that politics should be an expression of the "general will" of the people. They are pro democracy, but anti liberal democracy. They support popular sovereignty and majority rule, but reject pluralism (a conviction that various religious, ethnic, racial, and political groups should be allowed to thrive in a single society) and minority rights. Populist movements have a history of memorable and charismatic leaders, from fascists like Mussolini and Hitler, dictators like Stalin, reactionaries like Franco, to revolutionaries like Che Guevara. Europe's post World War II populist movements morphed into established political parties on the right (mostly in northern Europe) and on the left (in countries like Greece and Italy). Herman Van Rompuy, former president of the European Council, called populism "the greatest danger for Europe." An out-of-control migrant crisis, an influx of identifiable - mostly Islamic - immigrants, and the recent devastating terrorist attacks, have served to intensify populist sentiment, and enhanced the growing dominance of political organizations that articulate related concerns.

Populist parties tend to be anti-immigrant, anti-muslim, and anti E.U.. They successfully use islamophobia to mobilize its supporters. One of the earliest post-war organizations expressing these views was the "National Front" in France. Its founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, began the movement in 1972 on a platform of French nationalism, right-wing populism, anti-immigration and euroskeptic. The party was openly racist and xenophobic. His daughter Marine was elected to succeed him in 2011, and managed to grow the movement into the third most powerful political party in France. Polls covering the 2017 presidential elections show her competing effectively with current president Francois Hollande. While the "National Front" operates in opposition to the traditional parties, hard-right populist parties in Hungary and Poland recently managed to expand their political base and transition into governing majorities. Prime Minister Viktor Orban's "Fidesz" party has run Hungary since 2010. Orban styled himself as the sole defender of Christian Europe, and has called for blocking migrants to keep Europe Christian. "Fidesz" won a two-thirds majority of seats in the 2010 parliamentary election, which allowed Orban to pass a new constitution with little or no input from opposition parties, and which included his right-wing "illiberal" viewpoints. Under his guidance, and contrary to E.U. rules, Hungary built a fence on its border with Serbia and Croatia to effectively keep immigrants out. Poland's radical right-wing anti-immigrant and euroskeptic "Law and Justice Party," under Jaroslaw Kaczynski, came to power in October 2015. Since being elected, it has used its muscle to stack Poland's judiciary, undermine its constitutional order, and take full control over public media. Its "reforms" have placed it firmly in the fascist camp, and squarely in conflict with the E.U.'s "Copenhagen criteria" which stipulate conditions for membership, even though Poland has been a member state since May 2004. Kaczynski has defiantly declared that "Poland will not bow to the E.U. on its reforms."

While these populist parties already dominate their respective national governments, this may just be the onset of things to come. Others are becoming increasingly more prominent. Kristian Thulesen Dahl's "Danish People's Party" has grown to being the second largest party in Denmark. Geert Wilders's "Party of Freedom" in The Netherlands, and Heinz Christian Strache's "Freedom Party of Austria" currently rank third in their respective countries. Polls preceding next year's national elections in The Netherlands suggest that Wilders' party could end up winning the elction and leading a governing coalition. While all of these and other parties proclaim their support for the same set of populist principles, and although they are euroskeptic, they also claim seats in the European Parliament. As of 2014 one-third of the members elected to that body represent political organizations opposed to the E.U. and its reach.

Van Rompuy's opinion that populism is the greatest danger for Europe appears to have merit. When populism becomes the dominant ideology in national parliaments, Europe's future could be in jeopardy.  A few weeks ago, in a referendum, the Dutch rejected the European Union's trade and political treaty with Ukraine. This result effectively cancelled the agreement, since approval requires unanimous consent from all 28 member states. All others had voted in favor. Geert Wilders called the vote "the beginning of the end of the E.U." On June 23rd Britain goes to the polls to decide whether it should remain in the union. As of this week the group supporting to stay in polls just one percent ahead of the "brexit" contingent, which is led by the U.K. Independent Party. In the mean time, violent demonstrations like the one by 500 or so black shirted, Nazi-style, islamophobic goons flashing Nazi salutes at a vigil in Brussels right after the attacks there, can't make Europeans familiar with the excesses of the 1920's and 30's feel very comfortable.


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