ELECTION 2016 BY THE NUMBERS - AFTER THE INITIAL SKIRMISHES, STRATEGY DOMINATES

Bernie Sanders "creamed" Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, yet each candidate received the same number of delegates (once "super delegates" were added. This outcry from Bernie Sanders supporters was heard everywhere, and it underscores the fact that many voters don't understand how the selection of a party nominee works in our election process. During the initial stages coming in 2nd or 3rd may produce intangible advantages and reflect a candidate's potential for the benefit of sponsors. However, going forward, what determines advance on the road to their party's nomination is delegate count. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz flaunted their virtual tie for 2nd place in South Carolina, but Donald Trump collected all 50 pledged delegates from that state. It is perhaps worthwhile to attempt to untangle some of the elements candidates consider when strategizing how to compete for that prized nomination.

Every state in the union participates in the nomination process. They employ two different methods to arrive at their choices, a primary election or a caucus. A primary is a statewide voting process in which voters cast secret ballots for their preferred candidates, a method most of us have become accustomed to. However, there are still ten states using a caucus system, which was once the most common way of choosing presidential nominees. A caucus is a system of local gatherings where voters decide which candidate to support and select delegates for nominating conventions. Today Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Wyoming and Iowa still use this system. The selection taking place in each state is for delegates to each party's nominating convention, both of which this year are held late July. And here comes the rub, parties, Democrats more than Republicans, distinguish between "pledged delegates" and "super delegates."

Pledged delegates are chosen with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate at the convention. Super delegates are delegates seated at the convention who choose who they want to vote for. For Democrats these are party insiders who aren't bound by the popular vote and can support any candidate they choose. They include all Democratic members of the House and Senate and sitting Democratic governors. Democrats count 712 super delegates nation-wide, making up about 30% of the total delegates needed to win the nomination. This obviously reflects a concerted effort by party principals to have a measure of control over the process. In a close election super delegates can snatch a victory away from a candidate with numerically more "voted" delegates. Republicans generally have three unpledged or unbound delegates in each state, consisting of the state chairman and two RNC committee members. They are supposed to vote according to the results  of primary elections in their state.

A Democratic candidate needs to amass 2,383 delegates to secure the nomination. Thru the Nevada caucus Bernie Sanders collected 51 pledged delegates and 19 super delegates. Hillarfy Clinton could count 52 pledged delegates, but her organization has been able to "secure" support of 451 super delegates, bringing her thus far 18% closer to the needed delegate count than Senator Sanders. On the Republican side Donald Trump is well ahead in the delegate count, tallying 100% better than his combined opposition. For him the numbers that matter are not just delegates, but the number of his so-called establishment opponents in the race, which tend to divide "inside" votes among themselves.

Under Republican rules, until March 15 each state's slate of delegates is selected proportionate to each candidate's performance. Their magic number to win the nomination is 1,237. After March 15 states can use a "winner-take-all" process. There are few of those. Only Florida, Ohio and Arizona use this method. However, many of the next states in the Republican contest have rules that require candidates to win a minimum percentage of the vote to claim delegates. That increases the pressure on Donald Trump's opponents. For instance, among the Super Tuesday states on  March 1, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Vermont and Tennessee all impose a 20% vote threshold, while Oklahoma and Arkansas have dropped this minimum to an imposed 15% before a candidate can receive any delegates. All of this could benefit the party's frontrunner who has thus far clocked between 35% and 45% of the vote in states he won. Recent cycles have demonstrated that the Republican candidate leading the delegate count at the point of the calendar where 50% of the delegates have been allocated goes to the nomination. That point will be reached by the middle of March.

All of this may still be as clear as mud. What is clear, is that going forward the tactics used to enhance delegate collection will become more important than the size of the candidate's support in each state. On Saturday February 27 the Democrats will vote in their South Carolina primary with 57 delegates at stake. Tuesday March 1 features "Super Tuesday" a contest involving 13 states (9 primaries and 4 caucuses) where Democrats will compete for 990 delegates, and Republicans will divide 660. At the end of that day Democrats will have "divided" 49% of the number of delegates needed for the nomination, while Republicans will already be at 64%. To the candidates and their followers the mantra should be "keep your eye on the prize," the conventions are only 5 months away.