DOMESTIC AFFAIRS SHAPE GLOBAL TRAVEL

A few decades ago, a life-time friend of mine in The Netherlands, refused to consider visiting us in California as long as George Bush was in office. This rejection caught me unexpectedly off guard. However, in retrospect, at that time his mindset symbolized an emerging reaction to multiple adverse political factors affecting international travel into the U.S. At the time, his attitude prevailed among many potential international travelers. Foreign tourism to the U.S. was dramatically impacted by the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The decline resulted from psychological factors, new security measures and restrictive visa policies. The perception that was created suggested that entry into the U.S. was difficult. Besides, the Iraq war, started in March of 2003, and the "Bush Doctrine," which held that the country would implement a policy of preemptive military strikes against nations known to be harboring terrorist organizations, further damaged the sense of international goodwill toward the U.S. Our travel industry's share of the global market dropped from a peak of 9.4% in 1992 to a low of 5.9% in 2004. This decline cost us billions of tourist dollars and tens of thousands of jobs. Since the Bush years, the political landscape has changed. However, history appears to be repeating itself. Globally, tourism contributes about 10% to the value of all goods and services produced (GDP), employing 1 in 10 people world-wide. In 2024, global tourism's direct contribution was estimated at $10.9 trillion. The sector generated a record breaking $2.6 trillion to the U.S. economy that same year. This amounted to about 8% of our GDP, supporting 20 million jobs and $585 billion in tax revenue. The tourism industry is indisputably a vital part of our economy, and foreign travel constitutes a significant slice of this. In early 2025, the "U.S. Travel Association" projected that foreign travel spending would increase to $200.8 billion this year. This would have amounted to a substantial growth of 9% over 2024. However, in May, noting a sharp and widespread drop in arrivals, the "World Travel and Tourism Council" radically revised this assessment, and projected that this level of spending would actually drop to $169 billion, 8% below 2024. In addition, the Council predicted that, out of 184 countries tracked, the U.S. would end up being the only one to experience a decline in international visitor spending. So, what happened? More than a dozen countries, from Canada to Europe to China, have published advisories about travel to the U.S.. Tariffs, immigration crack down, repeated jabs about the U.S. acquiring Canada and Greenland, visions of army units on the streets, fears of being questioned at the border, the requirement to choose either "male" or "female" on visa applications, specific risks for those identifying as LGBTQ+, the fall of the dollar against the Euro, and a significant increase in the perception of uncertainty about what might happen next, are some of the concerns expressed by potential visitors. The loss won't be felt by travel and tourism alone. It represents a direct blow to the overall U.S. economy, impacting communities, jobs and businesses from coast to coast. Canadian tourist traffic, traditionally representing 28% of the total number of international visitors has already experienced a 25% drop, seriously affecting business income in a number of northern states. Las Vegas, which is significantly dependent on international traffic, has seen 12% fewer visitors each month since May. And Washington D.C., a traditional draw for foreign visitors, so far logged 48 cancellations of large reservations and events, and expects many more. Industries relying on foreign tourists: hospitality, retail and transportation are bracing for continued declines. Every 1% drop in international visitor spending equals $1.8 billion in lost revenue for our economy. This means that we stand to lose more than $21 billion in travel related income this year. Those depending on the tourism industry for their livelihood are legitimately wondering when their sector of the economy might recover. The FIFA world cup scheduled for next year may help spark a renewed interest in the U.S. as a travel destination. However, a sustainable recovery will depend on political and policy changes. A shift in policy focus, particularly toward improving visa access and easing travel restrictions should help revive this vital slice of our economy. Until then, the country's tourism industry must grapple with the lasting effects of restrictive policies and uncertain political conditions. Theo Wierdsma