PROGNOSES OF ECONOMIC DISASTER ARE GROSSLY OVERRATED

Predictions of the imminent end of the world as we know it have been made for centuries. What they all have in common is that none of them have come true. Former president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump, however, has a lot in common with some contemporary clairvoyants like John Hagee, Mark Blitz, David Meade, Ronald Weinland and Jean Dixon, when he predicted devastating outcomes for the U.S. economy if he was not reelected president in 2024. Earlier this year, on January 6, during an interview with Lou Dobbs, Trump even expressed the hope that the economy would crash during this coming year so he would not have to be "Herbert Hoover," who, during his first year in office was confronted with the stock market bubble bust, which led to the Great Depression. A few months later, he warned that our economy would enter a depression akin to the world-wide Great Depression of 1929-1939. He admonished that if Harris wins the election, the result would be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. And he predicted that "when I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It will be a boom." During the previous Trump administration, inflation remained relatively low at 2.1%. The economy, Gross Domestic Product, grew at an average of 2.67%. Biden's grew 3.4%. The deficit worsened by trillions, topping $3.1 trillion during the pandemic. Unemployment increased to 6.4%. The Trump economy lost 2.7 million jobs during his presidency. Biden added 15.4 Million jobs. Our trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008, increasing 36.3% from 2016. Our national debt increased by 39%, from $14.4 to $21.6 trillion, reaching $27.75 trillion by the end of his term. The number of citizens without health insurance increased by 4.6 million. And, during his second year, Bloomberg News concluded that the Trump economy ranked number 6 out of 7 presidents preceding him, based on 14 metric of economic activity and financial performance. Our current, admittedly post-pandemic, economic situation looks much stronger. GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1%. Inflation is down to 2.89%, the lowest since 2021. Unemployment tops at 4.3%. In 2023 our trade deficit narrowed to the smallest in 3 years. And the stock market, in which 57% of Americans contribute to a 401(k) is at an all time high. Although not entirely impossible, it appears difficult to give credence to Mr. Trump's prophecies of a return to a devastating depression akin to the crash of 1929 if he fails to reclaim the presidency. His record fails to support his ability to manipulate economic progress. During the Great Depression, real GDP fell 29%, the unemployment rate peaked at 25%, consumer prices fell 25%, wholesale prices dropped 32%, 7,000 banks, nearly 1/3 of our banking system failed, and the Dow dropped below 200. Daniel Alpert, managing partner of the investment firm Westwood Capital, sees it this way: "Donald Trump's greatest worry right now is that the economy is actually in very good condition. He understands that his free ride now is dependent on [the voters] bad memory of inflation. As that fades over time, in November he could be up against a candidate who [assisted] in stewarding a very strong economy, and the memories of inflation will have long passed." Theo Wierdsma