BIBI NETANYAHU'S WATERLOO

On October 7 the world woke up to videos of horrendous slaughter in Israel, executed by Hamas, the Palestinian Sunni Islamist political and military organization governing the Gaza Strip of the Israeli occupied Palestinian territories. While branding Hamas a terrorist organization, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu proclaimed that the country was now engaged in a full scale war, not only to retaliate for the brutal murder of 1,200 of its citizens and the capture of more than 240 hostages, but, in essence, for the country's survival. What he neglected to tell his listeners was that, in a real sense, Mr. Netanyahu is now also engaged in a battle for his personal political survival. Even though Bibi Netanyahu is the longest serving Israeli prime minister in the country's history, his survival as the dominant political figure does not necessarily reflect his popularity. He has been adept at adjusting to changing domestic political realities over time. Moreover, he has been more than willing to callously manipulate skirmishes with mostly Palestinian opponents into life or death situations for the Jewish state. In the process he managed to continually reinvent himself as the savior of the only democratic country in the Middle East. Well before the October 7 attacks, Netanyahu's popularity had already plummeted across the political spectrum. The Israeli press excoriated him, and former security officials and activists opposed to his judicial reform agenda called for him to step down. The outbreak of war has led to increased dislike for the prime minister and his government because of the general belief that it failed to follow up on security and intelligence indicators that could have prevented the massacre. Recent polling indicated that 86% of respondents hold the country's leadership responsible for the security failures that led to the surprise attack, and 56% of Israelis believe that the prime minister should resign. Netanyahu has been under indictment for breach of trust, bribery and fraud since 2019. If convicted, he could face up to 10 years in prison for bribery and a maximum of 3 years for fraud and breach of trust. Politically, his right wing government has attempted to pass judicial reform intended to weaken the Israeli Supreme Court and to make it more difficult to remove him from power. These attempts have sparked some of the largest public demonstrations in Israel's history. Given the theoretical possibility that he could be forced out of office if his popularity continues to drop, his political crisis raises the question of whether he could view prolonged military intervention as a way to cling to political survival. Since Israel is relatively isolated in the conflict with Hamas, it would stand to reason that its government would pay heed to suggestions from a diminishing number of unwavering international partners. These not so subtle recommendations issued by major players like President Joe Biden, who visited the country arguably at his own political peril, have largely been ignored. It may be an overstatement to suggest that the Israeli government should pay attention to our advice. Israel is, after all, an independent country. However, we may be less inclined to protect it if its government remains unresponsive. The argument can be made that its survival won't just be dependent on the outcome of this war. The U.S. has been its dominant supporter since its inception. Between 1951 and 2022 we have provided $225.2 billion in aid - more than to any other country since World War II. We have also used our U.N. Security Council veto power 42 times against resolutions condemning Israel. This is out of 83 times we used our veto. Nevertheless, Mr. Netanyahu has consistently refused to consider the advice of our most seasoned political operatives. He pointedly opposed the Iran nuclear deal pursued and agreed to under President Obama. The prime minister ran a multi-pronged sustained public campaign against it - not just in the international sphere, but inside the U.S. as well. (He managed to get President Trump to withdraw from it.) Our support for the establishment of a Palestinian state was also nixed. Netanyahu wanted a demilitarized Palestinian state and further expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank. President Biden's proposal to "pause" the unrestricted cataclysmic attack on Gaza is also being ignore. For decades, U.S. Secretaries of State, peace envoys and politicians of all stripes have expressed their belief that Mr. Netanyahu never had an interest in pursuing peace. In fact, he actively runs campaigns inside our country, manipulating our electorate for his personal political benefit. Many stakeholders in Israel and the U.S. are finally getting tired of Bibi's narcissistic indifference to well intended advice. Influential voices from across the political spectrum, uttered from multiple, well developed, platforms, are beginning to characterize Bibi Netanyahu as the "worst leader in [Israel's] history." (e.g. Friedman et al). Several have suggested that "the sooner Israel replaces Netanyahu and his far-right allies with a true center-left/ center-right national unity government, the better chance that Biden will not have hitched his credibility and ours to a Netanyahu Israel that will never be able to fully help us to help it." In the mean time Netanyahu will continue to pursue a war of devastation in Gaza, nominally to eradicate Hamas, but actually slaughtering tens of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to hide or go. He will likely continue this unscrupulous battle as long as he believes that the outcome may benefit him politically. The world is waiting for conscientious Israeli leaders to put a stop to this and to him. Like Napoleon a little more than two centuries ago, Israel's perennial prime minister might actually be fighting the battle that will ultimately end his imperial power. Theo Wierdsma